[Soda ash]10.22 Soda ash Daily Review: Soda ash market continues to operate in a weak position

Analysis of soda ash market

Today, China's soda ash market is operating weakly and steadily. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is 1,400 - 1,600 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,500 - 1,650 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northeast China is 1,700 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,700 - 1,850 yuan/ton. The start of soda plants remains high. Although some companies have reduced their prices slightly, the overall supply is still sufficient; the purchase of soda consuming terminals in some areas is weak, coupled with the impact of price reduction promotions in surrounding provinces, the decline in market procurement has intensified, and manufacturers have taken advantage of the trend to cut their prices by 30-50 yuan/ton.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on October 22, was 1480 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1521 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.19% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1531 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1465 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1240900 lots, a month-on-month period of-21580 lots.

Today, soda ash futures prices have risen sharply. The main reason is still the constant rumors of disruptions such as production reduction on the supply side and environmental protection. The market logic is basically based on short funds to avoid risks. The current situation of oversupply has not been broken, and there is some pressure for prices to rebound further. However, the current market trading logic is still dominated by expectations. The overall market macro atmosphere and expectations for improvement in the supply and demand gap still cannot be falsified. In the short term, in the policy vacuum period, priority will be given to wait and see whether supply side disturbance events are further fermented.

market outlook

The overall start of the soda ash market remains high, downstream demand is still weak, and transaction performance is sluggish; under the influence of inventory pressure, soda ash production companies are actively promoting quantity mainly; it is expected that the soda ash market will mainly adjust to weakness in the short term.