Daily Review of Urea: Increase in transactions in low-end quotes and corporate quotations are mixed (October 22)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on October 22 was 1,901.05, an increase of 1.95% from yesterday, an increase of 0.10% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.88%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR501 contract is 1830, the highest price is 1845, the lowest price is 1817, the settlement price is 1830, and the closing price is 1829. The closing price is 16% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.88% month-on-month. The fluctuation range throughout the day is 1817-1845; The basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is-29; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 4168 lots today, and so far, it has held 175695 lots.

Today, urea futures prices are generally strong and volatile. Recently, the impact of environmental protection rumors in various regions on chemicals has gradually increased, and the market has a certain risk aversion. However, the problem of excess urea itself is still relatively serious, and the demand undertaking is not expected to be strong, so it is temporarily impossible to give a strong upward drive. However, with the support of the overall market macro atmosphere, the space below is also limited, waiting for new drivers in the short term or as the market environment fluctuates.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the urea market price in China rose slightly, and the number of transactions at the low-end of the market increased. The market was weak and consolidated. OverallThe market lacks sustainable positive support, and the market is often volatile in the short term. Prices are mixed today.。

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have been lowered to 1,890 - 1,930 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have been raised to 1,780 - 1,840 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has been raised to 1,790 -2010 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 1,880 -2010 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have been raised to 1,820 - 1,930 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have been lowered to 1,920 - 2,000 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1,900 - 1,920 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 1,900 - 2,250 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, low-end quotations of some mainstream regional companies increased, and their quotations increased slightly. The quotations of peripheral companies continued to be lowered and received orders. On-site quotations were mixed, and most of them were temporarily generalized and execution was mainly pending. In terms of the market, after the transactions of low-end goods in the market improved, boosted by sentiment, orders increased. Currently, a moderate amount of transactions is maintained. The fundamentals are still weak in the short term. The overall market atmosphere is general and lacks effective positive support. On the supply side, the industry's Nissan dropped slightly, but the supply is still sufficient, continuing to operate at a high level for a short time, and there are still expectations for a decline in the supply side in the later period. On the demand side, after the market quotation continued to be lowered, downstream merchants purchased on demand at dips. The performance on the demand side was average and follow-up was limited.

On the whole, the current low-end transactions in the urea market in China have improved slightly. Downstream merchants are purchasing appropriate amounts on dips. High-priced transactions are weak. The market atmosphere is deadlocked. It is expected that the urea market price will temporarily be deadlocked and fluctuated in a short period of time.