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Analysis of PVC futures: On October 22, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5375, the highest price: 5412, the lowest price: 5342, the position: 855744, the settlement price: 5382, yesterday's settlement: 5390, down 8, the daily trading volume: 952177 lots, the accumulated funds: 3.237 billion, and the capital outflow: 44.49 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market remain weak, and spot prices are mixed and adjusted flexibly. Comparison of valuation: North China fell by 20 yuan/ton, East China's low-end rose by 20 yuan/ton, South China fell by 10 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 50 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 60 yuan/ton, and Southwest China was stable. Most upstream PVC production companies hold prices and wait and see, mainly consuming factory inventory. Some companies lowered their ex-factory quotations by 70 yuan/ton, including port FOB prices falling simultaneously. Futures market prices rose slightly, but there was insufficient feedback from the spot market. In the morning session, even some regions, real orders were traded with small concessions. Two quotation methods, point price and buy price, coexist, and the basis difference is guaranteed to be not large. Among them, the basis difference in East China is offered 01 Contract-(50-120-150-180), contract 01 in South China-(0-50), contract 01 in northern China-(320-380), contract 01 for some goods from Southwest China-(560), and contract 01 for some high-end delivery-(130). At present, the spot market is not sufficiently stimulated, and downstream companies are mainly in need of low-level pending orders, and trading is light.
From a futures perspective: The opening price of the PVC2501 contract fell slightly in the night session, reaching a low point and then bottomed out. The early session was basically spent in a narrow range, and the futures price rose slightly in the afternoon, but the increase was small throughout the day. The 2501 contract fluctuates from 5,342 to 5,412 throughout the day. The spread is 70.01 contract has increased its position by 17581 lots. As of now, 855744 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5713, with 118987 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The operation range of the futures price of the PVC2501 contract is relatively small, only 70 points throughout the day, and the fluctuation range is narrowing. Secondly, the operation of the futures price is still sideways in the low range. The difference from Monday's market is that today's futures prices move slightly from bottom to top. The market surface shows a certain trend of reducing positions. It closes at the positive column with a longer lower shadow line throughout the day. In terms of transactions, it is open 23.5% and open 22.7%. The technical level shows that the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) has expanded, and the daily KD line and MACD line are still showing a dead fork trend. Judging from the current operating trend of futures prices, we believe that the operation of futures prices will continue to test the operating range of 5,300 -5450 between the lower rails, and it is still difficult to get rid of the shackles of the low range.
In terms of spot: There are few fundamental variables in supply and demand, and they are not very instructive on prices. The export ship and cargo prices of Formosa Plastics PVC from China Taiwan were stable in October, at US$780 (CFR) the mainland of China, US$805 (CFR) to Southeast Asia, and US$800 (CFR) to India. From this perspective, there is no impact on the spot market. It is expected that prices in the two cities have gradually returned to the fundamentals of PVC after the surge in late September and the gradual cooling down after the National Day. Although today's policy news shows that the interest rate of existing mortgage loans will be adjusted soon! Early repayments are slowing down, and mortgage approval will be completed on the same day as possible. On October 25, each bank will uniformly adjust the interest rates of eligible existing mortgage loans in batches. However, feedback from the products was negligible. Overall, in the short term, the spot market may continue to organize and operate in the low range if there is no clear variable factors to stimulate it.
