Analysis of caustic soda futures: On October 22, the opening price of the SH2501 contract: 2728, the highest price: 2749, the lowest price: 2641, the position: 78522, the settlement price: 2695, yesterday's settlement: 2754, the decline: 59, the closing price: 2712, the daily trading volume: 385217 lots, the deposited capital: 1.022 billion, and the capital outflow: 22.01 million.
Market price of caustic soda:
Spot analysis of caustic soda: Today, China's caustic soda market maintains a positive trend, with continuous market gains. The liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda markets have shown varying degrees of increase. From the perspective of market price adjustments in various regions, 32% ionic membrane alkali has increased by 10-130 yuan/ton, 50% ionic membrane alkali has increased by 30-180 yuan/ton, 48% ionic membrane alkali has increased by 100 yuan/ton, 49% ionic membrane alkali has increased by 110-150 yuan/ton, and 99% sheet alkali has increased by 50-200 yuan/ton; The price range of alkali at other concentrations remained almost stable. Liquid soda prices continued to increase today, and the market maintained an upward trend. Prices in Shandong, the main producing area, continue to rise due to fundamentals, driving prices in surrounding areas; positive downstream receiving of goods in some areas, and dissatisfaction with the start of individual local installations, supporting local price increases; tight supply of goods in some areas boosted prices. The overall liquid soda market is still rising, and the market transaction atmosphere is still good. Manufacturers in most regions of upstream production enterprises have raised their ex-factory quotations, ranging from 10 to 500 yuan/ton, with the increase in northwest and central China being large, and the increase in other regions being relatively small; manufacturers in a few regions are temporarily on the sidelines, and the price adjustment mentality is relatively cautious. Today, the soda market continued to maintain a good trend, and the market transaction performance was relatively moderate. Most manufacturers in the northwest region have not yet announced the price of new orders this week. Some manufacturers have announced that their quotations will continue to increase, and market activity remains unabated. The actual transaction price in the market is significantly higher than the manufacturer's ex-factory quotation, and traders are mainly actively shipping.
Analysis of caustic soda futures: The contract price of caustic soda SH2501 fell first and then rose. The night market fluctuated downward. It maintained the downward trend of the night market in the morning, fell to an intraday low and rebounded slightly in the late market. In the afternoon, the market continued its upward trend, but the overall upward momentum was slightly insufficient. As of today's afternoon close, the SH2501 contract fluctuated throughout the day from 2641 to 2749, with a spread of 108.01 contracts reduced its position by 1220 lots, and so far, 78522 lots have been held.
Caustic soda index analysis:According to calculations from TDD-global data, China's caustic soda index on October 22 was 3275.13, up 57.38, or 1.783%. China's caustic soda index rose.
Forecast for caustic soda market outlook:
In terms of spot:At present, there is basically still support from the spot market. The overall market maintains a good upward trend and prices continue to increase. In the liquid soda market, the supply of goods in some areas is tight, and the downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods is still acceptable, which still has a boost to local prices; the price of liquid soda in Shandong, the main producing area, continues to increase, which has a greater impact on markets in other regions. Most regions follow suit and market sentiment is high. There is still a positive attitude towards the future outlook. In addition, alumina prices continue to climb. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the main downstream alumina companies have any action to further increase the purchase price of liquid soda. It is expected that short-term liquid soda prices may continue to increase regionally. In the caustic soda market, at present, looking at the maintenance of some equipment in the caustic soda market, coupled with poor transportation in some areas, the supply of the caustic soda market is still tight. Most operators are still positive, and the market price of the caustic soda may continue to rise.
Futures:The contract price of SH2501, the main force of caustic soda, continued to fall. Both sides of the market took the initiative to leave the market. As of the afternoon's closing market, the transaction situation was as follows: 21.4% more than 22% less than 22% less than 23.5% less than 23.1%. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) has narrowed slightly, the upper track has turned downward, the daily KD line shows a dead fork trend, and the golden fork trend of the MACD line narrows. Today, the market for caustic soda fell, leading the decline in the chemical sector in the morning and a slight upward trend in the afternoon. Futures prices climbed significantly in late September. Currently, they have risen by 614 points in nearly a month. In the past two days, the market has fallen back. The short-term caustic soda market either lacks momentum to rise or operates in a volatile range.
List of caustic soda positions:
