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Analysis of PVC futures: On October 21, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5450, the highest price: 5468, the lowest price: 5334, the position: 873325, the settlement price: 5390, yesterday's settlement: 5446, down 56, the daily trading volume: 1078097 lots, the deposited capital: 3.281 billion, and the capital inflow: 70.43 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price in China's PVC market fell at the beginning of the week, and the market operation was weak. Comparison of valuation: North China fell by 50 yuan/ton, East China fell by 90-100 yuan/ton, South China fell by 50-70 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 50 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 20 yuan/ton, Southwest China fell by 50 yuan/ton. Some upstream PVC production companies declined slightly, with a drop of around 40-50-80 yuan/ton. Some companies did not report new prices on Monday. At the beginning of the week, the futures market weakened significantly, and the atmosphere in the spot market was not good. Traders lowered their morning offers one after another, and the atmosphere in the market was weak. Both a buy price and a point price coexist. After the futures price fell, the point price advantage was relatively obvious. Among them, the East China Region Basis Offer 01 Contract-(50-120-150-180), contract 01 in South China-(0-50), contract 01 in northern China-(320-380), contract 01 for some goods from Southwest China-(560), and contract 01 for some high-end delivery-(130). Although the spot market offers were positive at the beginning of the week, there were no good inquiries, and trading in the spot market was light.
From a futures perspective: The opening price of the PVC2501 contract was mainly sorted out at night, and the intra-market fluctuations narrowed. The price fell significantly in early trading on Monday, falling below the 5400 mark to the lowest point of 5334, and the price of the afternoon futures was running low. The 2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 5,334 to 5,468, with a spread of 134. The 01 contract has increased its position by 32068 lots. As of now, 873325 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5673, with 118327 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The futures price of the PVC2501 contract operated as we expected, with the lower rail support level being tested back, with the lowest point of 5334. There were 32069 lots of increased positions throughout the day, with both long and short positions entering the market. In terms of transactions, 25.9% were open for short positions compared with 25.2% more. The technical level shows that the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) are turning downward, especially the lower rails are turning significantly. The daily KD line and MACD line showed a dead end. From the technical perspective of closing the line, the main PVC contract showed a short position and returned to the weak situation in the previous period. However, after the futures price reached the low range, the market was still partially open and entered. In the short term, the operation of futures prices may continue to test the lower rail position and observe the operation in the low range of 5300-5450.
In terms of spot: Although prices in both markets fell at the beginning of the week, the spot market did not show good transactions. In terms of PVC costs, the price of calcium carbide dropped by 50 yuan/ton, and the VCM of Taixing Xinpu dropped by 50 to 4,800 - 4,900 acceptance (weekly pricing). From the perspective of supply and demand, PVC units are still being overhauled, but even if the overhauling exists, the operating rate of PVC units is still at a high level. Downstream demand is expected to weaken. Trading is light, and there is no additional demand except for the part that is just needed. After futures returned to weakness, the impact on spot goods was greater, and some ex-factory prices fell below the 5000 mark again. On the external side, international oil prices fell as investors absorbed the mixed expected impact of the situation in the Middle East and increased market concerns about the outlook for oil demand. Overall, the current operating expectations of the spot market are slightly weak, and the spot market price may return to the low range.
