Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market continues to operate weakly. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is 1,400 - 1,600 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,500 - 1,650 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1,150 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,150 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The start of the soda plant remained at a high level and the supply was sufficient; the downstream mainly purchased at low prices, and the sentiment of price reduction was strong, and the focus of transactions had shifted downward; manufacturers were facing pressure to remove warehouses, market supply and demand were unbalanced, and soda ash prices showed a weak adjustment trend.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on October 21, was 1444 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1481 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.78% within the day. The intraday high was 1483 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1419 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1262480 lots, a month-on-month-on-month-on-month.
Today, soda ash futures prices remained mainly volatile in a narrow range. In the late session, due to the announcement of production reduction by major manufacturers, capital hedging behavior led to a significant rise. Overall, the surplus situation of soda ash itself is still difficult to reverse, and there is no new relay point for macro-level policy expectations. Individual disturbances on the supply side may have limited rebound in prices. In the short term, we can wait and see whether new high-cost manufacturers will follow suit to reduce production, thereby further igniting short risk aversion. If other manufacturers are not willing to reduce production, they will still remain volatile.
market outlook
The overall start of the soda ash market remains high, downstream demand is weak, and transaction performance is sluggish; the market lacks upward momentum, and the prices of new orders of some companies are gradually adjusting. It is expected that the soda ash market will stabilize and weaken in the short term.
