Analysis of caustic soda futures: On October 21, the opening price of the SH2501 contract: 2800, the highest price: 2865, the lowest price: 2685, the position: 79742, the settlement price: 2754, yesterday's settlement: 2740, the increase: 14, the closing price: 2728, the daily trading volume: 531604 lots, the deposited capital: 1.044 billion, and the capital outflow: 110 million.
Market price of caustic soda:
Spot analysis of caustic soda: Today, the overall caustic soda market in China continued to show an upward trend, and the market performed well at the beginning of the week. Liquid soda prices continue to rise at high levels in most regions, while flake soda prices also rise in some regions. From the perspective of market price adjustments in various regions, 32% ionic membrane alkali increased by 10-130 yuan/ton, 50% ionic membrane alkali increased by 120-130 yuan/ton, and 49% ionic membrane alkali increased by 30-50 yuan/ton. The transaction price range of 99% flake alkali increased by 100-300 yuan/ton; the price range of alkali with other concentrations remained almost stable. Today, the liquid soda market is in a good trend, with many places showing obvious increases, and the market transaction atmosphere is performing well. First, the main downstream alumina companies in Shandong once again raised the purchase price of liquid soda by 50 yuan/ton to 975 yuan/ton. Most local manufacturers raised their ex-factory quotations, boosting traders 'confidence in quotation. The transaction price followed up and drove prices in surrounding areas to the same rise; some caustic soda companies in East China had little inventory pressure, and the impact of rising prices in the main producing areas had led to an increase in transaction prices; The market mentality of some regions in Central China is still good, and prices are also driven by the markets of major producing areas, showing an upward trend. Most manufacturers of upstream production enterprises in North China have raised their ex-factory quotations ranging from 50 to 170 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers in East China have raised them ranging from 20 to 110 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers in other regions have temporarily stayed on the sidelines and are relatively cautious in price adjustment. Today, the main manufacturers in the Shandong alkali market have closed their orders since mid-October, and their quotations at the beginning of this week have been significantly increased by 500 yuan/ton compared with before the closure. The focus of transaction prices in the local market has mainly increased; the main manufacturers in the northwest region have not yet announced the new order price, and the price of the companies is relatively cautious in quoting, the market transaction situation is stable, and the market price continues to rise. The supply of alkali at the supply end is still relatively tight, and there has been no significant relief in transportation.
Analysis of caustic soda futures: The contract price of caustic soda SH2501 fell somewhat. In the night session, the market fluctuated downward. After the opening price in the morning session hit a high point, there was a significant downward trend. In the afternoon, the market fell slightly again and rose slightly in the late session. As of today's close, the SH2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 2685 to 2865, with a spread of 180.01 contracts reducing 6744 lots, and so far, 79742 lots have been held.
Caustic soda index analysis:According to calculations from Tdd-global's data, China's caustic soda index on October 21 was 3,217.74, up 153.23, or 5%. China's caustic soda index rose.
Forecast for caustic soda market outlook:
In terms of spot:At present, in the caustic soda market, prices are already at a high level during the year. The overall market maintains a bullish sentiment and prices are rising steadily. The supply and demand level is still the main factor supporting the rise in caustic soda prices. In terms of the liquid soda market, first of all, some devices are still under maintenance. Coupled with this week, there are still new maintenance devices, which can also support the increase in the liquid soda market in the short term. On the demand side, downstream alumina companies have increased their purchases of liquid soda in the main production areas, and the demand side is also supported. Downstream in other regions just needs to follow up slightly. In addition, the market mentality is positive, and it is expected that the liquid soda market may still have a regional upward trend in the short term. Looking at the flake alkali market, the flake alkali market has seen an obvious upward trend recently. The inventory pressure of flake alkali manufacturers is not great, and social inventories are also at a low level. In addition, some companies have equipment maintenance, and the supply of goods is relatively tight, which has support for prices; Transportation is still limited, and there is no relief yet; most operators have a positive attitude and have a bullish attitude towards the future outlook. The price of new orders may continue to rise this week, and prices in various markets may be relatively strong.
Futures:The market price of the SH2501 contract, the main force of caustic soda, surged to a high since early June and fell back. After the opening price rose rapidly in early trading, the short entry exerted a certain suppression on the market. As of the afternoon's closing market transaction situation: Both sides of the market have closed positions and left the market relatively obvious, with 21.7% more open than 22.3%, and 23.3% empty flat compared with 25.2%. The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) are open upwards, the two lines of the daily KD line intersect, and the MACD line shows a golden cross trend. After the main contract hit successive periodic highs, there was a certain bearish sentiment. However, at present, there is still support for the market, and the short-term caustic soda market fluctuates at high levels.
List of caustic soda positions:
