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On October 17, the methanol market price index was 1,996.08, down 14.52 from yesterday, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.72%.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on October 17:
China CFR 290-295/ton, down 3/ton;
US FOB 112-113 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 347-348 US $/ton, flat;
European FOB 379.5-380.5 euros/ton, up 8 euros/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2425-2440 (0), Zhejiang: 2490-2500 (0), Anhui: 2350-2370 (-30),
South China: Guangdong: 2420-2430 (0), Fujian: 2460-2530 (0)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2220 (0), North Shandong: 2140-2170 (-10), Linyi: 2250 (0)
North China: Shanxi: 2035-2100 (0), Hebei: 2130-2180 (0)
Central China: Henan: 2120-2135 (0), Two Lakes: 2280-2430 (0)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2000-2050 (-30), northern Shaanxi: 1900 (-20), northern Inner Mongolia: 1900-1940 (-20), southern Inner Mongolia: 1940 (0), Xinjiang: 1900-2030 (0)
Northeast: Liaoning: 2290-2420 (-110), Heilongjiang: 2550 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2190-2350 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2120-2480 (0)
Spot market analysis：
Today, methanol market prices continued to operate in a weak position. Futures fluctuated at a low level, and spot quotes were weak. Currently, demand in the downstream market is performing poorly. Some downstream factories have sufficient raw material inventories. There is little enthusiasm for replenishing goods in the market, and low-price transactions are the main ones. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been adjusted within a narrow range. The price for the southern line of Inner Mongolia is around 1940 yuan/ton, maintaining yesterday. The price for the northern line of Inner Mongolia is around 1900-1940 yuan/ton, and the low-end is lowered by 20 yuan/ton. Yulin Yankuang This week, the starting price of methanol was reported to 1900 yuan/ton, and the quantity was 3000 tons, and all transactions were completed; Rongxin's starting price of methanol was quoted as 1900 yuan/ton, and the quantity was 6000 tons. A small number of transactions were sold at this price. The market price continued to operate weakly. The futures market continued to pull back, and the spot price was weak. The market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, with 2220 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,140 - 2,170 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The downstream market demand performance is poor, and there is little enthusiasm for replenishing goods in the market. Market quotes in North China fluctuated and fell back. Today, Hebei quoted 2,130 - 2,180 yuan/ton. The enthusiasm for buying and purchasing was not good, and the market transaction atmosphere was light; Shanxi quoted 2,035 - 2,100 yuan/ton today, maintaining yesterday's. Some upstream manufacturers continued to make profits and ship, resulting in poor transactions.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures were weak and volatile. A small amount of stock is just needed. Discussions on long-term replacement were mainly focused, and the basis stabilized in the morning; shipments increased in the afternoon, and the basis weakened. The overall transaction throughout the day was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot transaction: 2425-2440, basis 01-15/-5; transaction under 10:2430-2455, basis 01+0/+6; transaction under 11:2455-2475, basis 01+22/+28.
Market outlook forecast:At present, the fundamental performance of methanol itself is still poor, and the overall supply in the China market has maintained a high position. Manufacturers in the main producing areas still rely mainly on warehousing in the short term under the influence of increased inventory pressure. However, the demand in the terminal downstream market has performed poorly. Although the start-up of some industries has improved compared with the previous period, considering the current poor overall downstream profitability, it is difficult for the demand side to have significant positive support in the short term. At present, the overall fundamentals of methanol itself are weak, and some industry operators still have a certain wait-and-see attitude towards the future outlook. It is expected that China market prices will continue to operate weak in the short term. In the later period, we need to pay close attention to the release of macro policies and the operation of on-site equipment.
