Caustic soda: Prices continue to rise at high levels, and alumina purchase prices continue to increase. The market is far ahead and the strong market leads the gains

Analysis of caustic soda futures: On October 18, the opening price of the SH2501 contract was 2675, the highest price was 2803, the lowest price was 2656, the position was 86486, the settlement price was 2740, yesterday's settlement was 2664, the increase was 76, the closing price was 2780, the daily trading volume was 708050 lots, the deposited capital was 1.154 billion, and the capital inflow was 304 million.

Market price of caustic soda:

Spot analysis of caustic soda: Today, China's caustic soda market showed a good trend. The center of gravity of market transaction prices in some regions continued to move upwards. Liquid caustic soda prices maintained their upward trend, while the flake caustic soda market operated relatively smoothly. From the perspective of market price adjustments in various regions, 32% ionic membrane alkali increased by 10-100 yuan/ton, 50% ionic membrane alkali increased by 40-60 yuan/ton, 48% ionic membrane alkali increased by 100 yuan/ton, and 99% of sheet alkali The transaction price ranges are mostly stable, while the price ranges of alkali with other concentrations remain almost stable. The liquid soda market maintained a good rise today, and the market transaction atmosphere performed well. First of all, the Shandong region, the main producing area, is supported by the maintenance of local equipment, coupled with the increase in downstream alumina purchases, and prices continue to show a small upward trend. The increase in prices in the main producing area will boost prices in surrounding areas to a certain extent; some areas in Central China are supported by supply reductions. Prices rise; In South China, equipment is operating under reduced load, and corporate inventory pressure is not great, so it is also supported by the supply side. The shipments of enterprises in the northwest region are still good, and the sharp rise in the price of flake soda has boosted the price of liquid soda. There have been no significant changes in both supply and demand sides in markets in other regions, and the market trading atmosphere has mostly remained at the previous level, and prices have mostly maintained stable operation. Most manufacturers in the main production areas of upstream production enterprises have raised their ex-factory quotations ranging from 10 to 50 yuan/ton, some manufacturers in Central China have raised their ex-factory quotations ranging from 100 to 150 yuan/ton, and most manufacturers in Northwest China have raised their ex-factory quotations ranging from 50 to 100 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers in other regions have temporarily stayed on the sidelines and are relatively cautious in price adjustment. Today, the alkali market is operating relatively smoothly. The center of market transaction prices in most regions remains at yesterday's level. The market is relatively cautious in price adjustment as it approaches the weekend. A small number of devices are still under maintenance, manufacturers have no inventory pressure, and some areas are still affected by transportation and have poor circulation of goods. The shipping prices of traders in various regions have not been significantly adjusted, and the market transaction situation is still acceptable.

Analysis of caustic soda futures: The contract price of caustic soda SH2501 rose. After the night session fluctuated upwards to a high point, it fell back in the late session; the morning session fluctuated slightly, and there was a clear upward trend again in the afternoon. As of today's close, the SH2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 2656 to 2803, with a spread of 147.01 contracts adding 19712 lots, and so far, 86486 lots have been held.

Caustic soda index analysis:According to Tdd-global's data, China's caustic soda index on October 18 was 3,064.52, up 42.49, or 1.406%. China's caustic soda index rose.

Forecast for caustic soda market outlook:

In terms of spot:The spot market price of caustic soda continues to maintain its upward trend, supply's support from the market is still obvious, and regional procurement is active on the demand side. At present, the liquid soda market still has equipment storage and maintenance plans in the later stage. In addition, there is not much inventory pressure in some areas, so there is still regional support for prices. Some regions are enthusiastic about downstream receiving goods and perform well. In addition, the main downstream alumina companies in Shandong have once again raised the liquid soda purchase price from 50 yuan to 895 yuan/ton, boosting prices. It is expected that some regions may still have expectations of rising short-term liquid soda prices. The shipment situation of some factories in the flake alkali market is still good, and the maintenance of some flake alkali units supports prices. The pressure on enterprises 'inventory is not great, and transportation is still limited. The market is highly enthusiastic about inquiries and the market mentality is positive. Most operators are still optimistic about the future outlook. Still bullish, it is expected that the flake alkali market will still have an upward trend in the short term.

Futures:The SH2501 contract price, the main force of caustic soda, performed strongly. The current market has hit a high of 2803 since the beginning of June, and has successfully broken through the 2800 mark and once again broken through the track. Bulls on the market were active, and long positions were more obvious. As of the afternoon's close trading situation, there were 25.6% more open than 21.9% less open, and 22.1% more open than 24.4% more open. The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) has a divergence trend, the daily KD line shows a golden cross trend, and the golden cross trend of the MACD line has expanded. The intra-day increase in the market exceeded 4%, far exceeding the gains of other chemicals, leading the chemical sector strongly. Fundamentals currently have certain support for the market, and the short-term caustic soda market fluctuates at a high level.

List of caustic soda positions: