PVC: The direction of narrow consolidation of futures prices is unclear, the Bollinger Band is narrowed, and the spot is obviously weakening.

Analysis of PVC futures: On October 18, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5441, the highest price: 5484, the lowest price: 5408, the position: 841256, the settlement price: 5446, yesterday's settlement: 5542, down 96, the daily trading volume: 1138074 lots, the deposited funds: 3.211 billion, and the capital inflow: 18.14 million.

Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton

PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market fell weakly, and the atmosphere in the spot market was light. Comparison of valuation: North China fell by 70 yuan/ton, East China fell by 80-100 yuan/ton, South China fell by 80 - 100 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 30-50 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 80-90 yuan/ton, Southwest China fell by 100 yuan/ton. Some upstream PVC production companies declined slightly, with a drop of about 50 yuan/ton. Some companies continued to maintain stable prices on the sidelines, but on Friday, not many contracts were signed for the first generation. The spot market is operating in a weak position, with on-site spot prices and one-stop prices coexisting, and the basis difference has not changed much. Among them, the basis price for East China is 01 contract-(150-180), South China is 01 contract-(0-50), and the northern region is 01 contract-(350-420), some goods sources in Southwest China are 01 contract-(560), and some high-end goods are sent to 01 contract-(130). Overall, PVC futures fluctuated within a narrow range on Friday. Traders 'one-time offer was lowered compared with yesterday. After the futures price was low, the basis offer advantage was more obvious, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and the spot market transactions were flat.

From a futures perspective: The PVC2501 contract opened slightly in night trading, but then the futures price fell. Late prices began to be consolidated in a narrow range in early trading, with a low of 5408 in late morning, and afternoon futures prices fluctuated within a small range. The 2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 5408 to 5484, with a spread of 76. The 01 contract has increased its position by 3062 lots. As of now, 841256 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5750 lots, with 119549 lots held.

PVC market outlook forecast:

Futures: The futures price of the PVC2501 contract was adjusted within a narrow range, with only 76 points throughout the day, a very narrow range, and the futures price fluctuated between the middle and lower rails. The technical level shows that the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, and 2) have narrowed, but the lower track has shifted to the lower track. The KD at the daily level continues to show a dead fork trend first, and the distance between the two MACD lines has further shortened. The current technical level has a vague intention of turning to a short position, with a slight increase in positions throughout the day on Friday. Whether it is from the range of fluctuations or the direction of long and short positions, it is unclear on Friday. However, at this point, the overall guidance brought by the futures price has come to an end. After returning to the fundamentals, the current trend is relatively entangled. In the short term, the futures price may continue to move sideways in the range between the middle and lower rails, but we must be wary of backtesting the lower rail support level is 5350.

In terms of spot: The trend of the spot market is similar to that of futures, but the difference is that real orders are traded at a profit. On the one hand, after the futures price goes down, the atmosphere in the spot market weakens, and the downstream just needs to purchase, so they tend to trade at a low price. On the other hand, in view of the pressure of digestion of supply, there is a certain amount of room for negotiation on real orders, which is also the reason why the current spot fundamentals are weak. On the other hand, at the current market stage, the traditional peak season is expected to come to an end, so the current performance of the two cities is not good. On the external side, international oil prices closed slightly higher as U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories fell. In addition, the European Central Bank announced on Thursday that it would cut interest rates for the third time this year, indicating that inflation in the euro zone is now increasingly under control and the economic outlook is deteriorating. In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is once again tense, and emerging geopolitical factors continue to cast a shadow on the market. Overall, the PVC spot market will be slightly consolidated in the short term.