Daily Review of Urea: Under the influence of macro emotions, the market prices stopped falling and rose (October 16)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiluoduo data, the urea small particle price index on October 16 was 1916.68, up 15.32 from yesterday, up 0.81 per cent from the previous month, and down 22.35 per cent from a year earlier.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR501 contract is 1840, the highest price is 1878, the lowest price is 1826, the settlement price is 1851, the closing price is 1840, the closing price is 9% higher than that of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month price is up 0.49%. The whole-day fluctuation range is 1826-1878. Shandong area basis-2001 contract increased by 9085 positions today, with 187961 positions held so far.

Urea futures prices are mainly rising and falling today.Mainly due to the overall market atmosphere and yesterday's export loosening news caused by the pulsating mood. At present, the great logic of urea's own surplus and policy regulation are still highly suppressing the price rebound. Although the follow-up demand is expected to improve to some extent, under the premise of loose supply, it is difficult to improve the willingness to hold goods downstream, and prices are not strongly driven. Although the rise in the market yesterday to a certain extent led to the spot market sentiment, but the actual downstream demand procurement is still cautious, and did not form a strong positive feedback. However, short-term policy expectations and macro atmosphere have not completely subsided, and price fluctuations are still mainly in line with the market environment, while the market may wait for weak shocks to drive and suppress disk profits before macro sentiment ferments again.

Spot market analysis:

Today, prices in China's urea market have risen slightly, and recently, under the influence of macro sentiment, the market transaction atmosphere has been boosted, the rigid demand for downstream factories and trade has followed up, and the focus of market negotiations has shifted upward. At present, prices in the main producing areas mostly remain strong.

Specifically, the price in Northeast China has been raised to 1910-1940 yuan / ton. Prices in East China have been raised to 1800-1850 yuan / ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in central China has been raised to 1810-2000 yuan / ton, and the price of large particles has been raised to 1920-2010 yuan / ton. Prices in North China have been raised to 1750-1950 yuan per ton. Prices in South China have been raised to 1970-2000 yuan / ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1920-1960 yuan / ton. Prices in southwest China are stable at 1900-2250 yuan / ton.

Future forecast:

As for the factory, the quotation continued to decline, driven by the emotional side of superimposed exports. today, the low-price acceptance of manufacturers improved, orders gradually accumulated, and factory quotations stopped falling and rebounded. In the market, after the boost of the export news, the trading sentiment improved, the low-end quotation improved, the mood of the operators fluctuated, and the focus of market negotiations moved slightly upwards, but under the influence of the light storage policy, in order to protect the interests of enterprises, the possibility of opening up exports this time is relatively small, and the urea market will rise steadily and slightly. On the supply side, some enterprises in Shanxi have announced that they will enter the production suspension cycle one after another. Although the supply and demand side has not improved for the time being, there is still room for the daily output to decline. In terms of demand, the current urea delivery gradually turns to the traditional off-season, the downstream demand advances slowly, and most of them maintain appropriate replenishment at low prices, with a cautious wait-and-see mentality. at present, the production of compound fertilizer plants is also gradually entering the later stage, and the consumption of urea for raw materials is gradually reduced. demand area to maintain a rigid demand procurement model.

Generally speaking, the current urea Chinese market is affected by the news, the factory has accumulated new orders, the market has stopped falling, the price has risen slightly, the supply continues to be high, and the lower reaches continue to maintain appropriate positions for bargains, and the mentality is to wait and see. it is difficult for market demand to undertake high supply, and it is expected that urea market prices will stabilize slightly and continue to rise in a short period of time.