[Soda ash]10.16 Soda ash Daily Review: Soda ash market is running weakly and stably

Analysis of soda ash market

Today, soda ash market prices in China are stable and falling. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is 1,550 - 1,650 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in North China is 1,600 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,650 - 1,800 yuan/ton. The start of the soda plant remains at a high level, and the operation of market equipment is stable and there is no significant change; downstream procurement demand is limited, with most low-priced transactions being mainly, but high prices are in conflict; soda ashThe market transaction atmosphere is lightThe pressure on manufacturers to ship still exists.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on October 16, was 1582 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1548 yuan/ton, an increase of-0.64% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1606 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1527 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1296048 lots, a month-on-month period of-3894 lots.

Today, soda ash futures prices mainly fell back due to the high and the decline in market sentiment driven by yesterday's policy expectations due to actual conditions or news that fell short of expectations. Overall, the current fundamentals of soda ash are still facing the logic of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Expectations for downstream improvement still exist under the leadership of short-term market macro logic. Positive expectations on the demand side are the main support. However, the supply side has not formed a resonance for the time being. Clear expectations, so once policy expectations that affect demand improvement cannot be sustained and followed up, market sentiment will fall relatively quickly relative to the downstream. Overall, the current main game policy for soda ash is good for expectations of improvement in demand, and this expectation cannot be falsified at present. The probability of subsequent policy increases is still high, and short-term or maintaining volatile game policy news is the main focus.

market outlook

Soda ash enterprises have operated steadily and with small movements, and the start-up has maintained a narrow range of fluctuations; downstream willingness to get goods is not strong, and there is no obvious support on the demand side; under high inventory pressure, soda ash market prices are expected to remain weak and stable in the short term.