Methanol: Futures market highs fall back, spot market center of gravity moves down widely

On October 15, the methanol market price index was 2032.04, down 40.28 from yesterday, down 1.94 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 14:

China CFR 297-300USD / ton, down US $3 / tonne

Us FOB 110111cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR US $347-348 per ton, Ping

European FOB 361.5-362.5 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

East China: Taicang: 2460-2490 (- 35), Zhejiang: 2530-2540 (- 30), Anhui: 2380-2390 (- 60)

South China: Guangdong: 2450-2470 (- 25), Fujian: 2490-2550 (- 50)

Shandong: southern Shandong: 2220 (0), Northern Shandong: 2150-2180 (- 60), Linyi: 2150-2300 (- 60)

North China: Shanxi: 2035-2100, Hebei: 2230-2260 (0)

Central China: Henan: 2130-2165 (- 40), Lianghu: 2280-2430 (- 80)

Northwest: Guanzhong: 2030-2090 (- 60), Northern Shaanxi: 1940-1950 (- 70), Inner Mongolia North Line: 1950-1980 (- 20), Inner Mongolia South Line: 2040 (0), Xinjiang: 2010-2150 (0)

Northeast: Liaoning: 2400-2520 (0), Heilongjiang: 2550 (0)

Southwest: Yungui: 2250-2450 (- 20), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2120-2480 (- 2480)

Spot market analysis:

Today, the methanol market continues to operate weakly, the futures market falls high, the spot market fluctuates at a low level, the follow-up of terminal downstream demand is limited, the trading atmosphere in the market is light, and some downstream stocks hold down prices under the influence of high inventories. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is adjusted narrowly. The quotation on the southern route of Inner Mongolia revolves around 2040 yuan / ton, maintaining the last working day. The quotation of the northern line of Inner Mongolia revolves around 1950-1980 yuan / ton, and the high end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. Yulin Kaiyue methanol starting price today quoted to 1940 yuan / ton, the quantity of 6000 tons, all failed bidding; Rongxin methanol starting price quoted today to 1950 yuan / ton, the quantity of 8000 tons, all transactions Yulin Yankuang methanol starting price quoted to 1950 yuan / ton, the quantity of 6000 tons, most of the transaction; terminal downstream and traders are still bearish on the future. The market price fluctuation in Shandong, the main consumer area, is limited, with 2220 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2150-2180 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Methanol futures fluctuate downward, the market operators are in a strong wait-and-see mood, and operators are mainly cautious in entering the market. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2230-2600 yuan / ton today, stable, the purchasing mood of factories in the lower reaches of the region is poor, and rigid demand is the main transaction; Shanxi quotation today is 2035-2100 yuan / ton, downstream demand is poor, users purchase price reduction mentality is obvious, market transactions continue to be rigid demand.

Port market:Today, methanol futures concussion downward, near-end rigid demand trading negotiations. Paper arbitrage is active, buying is cautious, and the basis weakens rapidly. The goods are exchanged frequently in recent months, and the price difference widens. In the afternoon, the atmosphere of the talks weakened and the base was slightly stable. Small volume of overall transactions throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2460-2480, base difference 01-7 Universe color 2 position 10 in deal: 2460-2490, base difference 01-5 prime price 3 position 10 transaction price: 2465-2500, base difference 01-5 shock price 13 position 11 deal: 2495, base difference 01 "10 lead" 15 transaction 11 transaction: 2490-2520, basis difference 01 "29bp" 33.

Future forecast:At present, the market price has basically returned to rationality. from the fundamentals of methanol itself, the overall performance of methanol is still poor, the game between supply and demand in the Chinese market still exists, and terminal downstream operators still maintain rigid demand when they enter the market to replenish goods. It is difficult for downstream demand to recover obviously in the short term. It is expected that methanol market prices may continue to be weak in the short term, but we need to pay close attention to macro policies in the later stage. Crude oil, coal prices, plant operation and downstream demand follow up.