Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market is operating steadily. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1,400 - 1,650 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,550 - 1,650 yuan/ton. The start of the soda plant remains at a high level, and the operation of market equipment is stable and there is no significant change; downstream demand is weak, mainly due to the need for replenishment, and the wait-and-see attitude remains unchanged; recently, the signing of new orders in the soda ash market has been relatively deserted, and orders from manufacturers have gradually decreased, and individual soda plant inventories have increased.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on October 15, was 1514 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1573 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.21% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1607 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1507 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1299941 lots, a month-on-month period of-57389 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices are operating strongly,It was mainly driven by the news of the fiscal incremental policy and the news that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will restart the policy of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings. From the perspective of soda ash fundamentals, supply is still growing, while downstream demand is shrinking. The suppression of the overall supply and demand gap is still strong. Recent policy news mainly improves downstream glass demand. The recent strength of soda ash is more driven by glass, and its own fundamental differences lead to a more convergent performance of soda ash compared to glass. Overall, under the guidance of macro logic, the main response to news is repeated before expectations cannot be falsified or wide fluctuations are maintained.
market outlook
Soda ash companies have operated steadily and with small movements, and start-up has maintained a narrow range of fluctuations; downstream procurement needs are limited,The market transaction atmosphere is light; Under high inventory pressure, soda ash market prices are expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term.
