[Soda ash]10.14 Soda ash Daily Review: Soda ash market prices are stable and declining

Analysis of soda ash market

Prices in some areas of the soda ash market in China have been reduced within a narrow range today. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1,400 - 1,650 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,550 - 1,650 yuan/ton. The overall start-up of soda plants is stable, and the market supply remains high; downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, and most of the demand continues; low quotations of individual companies have loosened, and the soda ash market is dominated by flexible transactions.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on October 14, was 1519 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1530 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.34% within the day. The intraday high was 1592 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1496 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1357326 lots, a month-on-month +54839 lots.

Today's soda ash futures prices are generally strong and volatile, with Friday night tradingAffected by policy expectations, it rebounded sharply. However, the content of the Ministry of Finance's press conference on Saturday has not yet been announced that it significantly exceeded expectations. The market's excessive sentiment was limited to take on, and data such as September's still weak led to a rapid decline in early trading. In addition, the news of capacity elimination in the photovoltaic industry has once again fermented, expectations for capacity reduction in photovoltaic glass have once again appeared, and expectations for shrinking demand for soda ash have intensified. At the same time, news of new capacity on the soda ash supply side has flowed out, and expectations of increased supply and reduced demand have been suppressed. Further strengthening has led to a relatively convergent trend in soda ash prices today. However, overall, the current disturbance of policy expectations still continues, and it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic for the time being.

market outlook

Soda ash enterprises have operated steadily and with small movements, and start-up has maintained a narrow range of fluctuations; downstream demand is flat and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude; it is expected that soda ash market prices will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, with narrow adjustments dominated.