PVC: Policies have been intensively boosted, and the turmoil in the two cities has intensified. Are you on the bus?

PVC trend analysis:Recently, there have been obvious large fluctuations in the two cities of China's PVC future. first of all, looking back at the September market, the prices of the two markets of PVC in September showed an obvious decline and then a rise. since the beginning of September, the atmosphere in the two markets has been on the negative side, and prices have continued to decline, showing no performance of Jinjiu, and prices once fell to the annual trough. Among them, the futures main contract reached its lowest point on September 18. the spot calcium carbide index was 5133.19, down 957.00 points from the annual high, and the vinyl index 5416.73 also hit an annual low. It is down 972.05 points from its annual high. Weak market in late September to the end of the month there is a major turning point, policy focus, a number of policy incentives, the market without a springboard directly take off. On the first day after the National Day, most commodities jumped high and the spot market was hot, but then the mood cooled somewhat after commercial bank loans were banned from entering the market, and prices in the two cities also showed a certain correction.

Policy carding:

1. On September 24, the central bank cut reserve requirements, interest rates and stock mortgage interest rates, and is studying stabilization funds. Central bank: lower the central bank policy interest rate by 0.2 percentage points in the seven-day reverse repo operation, and the average reduction in stock mortgage interest rates is expected to be about 0.5 percentage points. (1) the people's Bank of China has announced that it will cut the required reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points in the near future to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to the financial market. (2) in terms of mortgage, the interest rate of stock mortgage will be reduced and the minimum down payment ratio of mortgage will be unified. Guide commercial banks to reduce the stock mortgage interest rate to near the new mortgage rate, the average decline is expected to be about 0.5 percentage points. (3) the central bank's policy rate will be reduced, and the seven-day reverse repo operation rate will be cut by 0.2 percentage points, from the current 1.7% to 1.5%. (4) to create special re-loans to guide banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders to support repurchase and increase their holdings of shares. (5) the CSRC will issue opinions on promoting the entry of medium-and long-term funds into the market and six measures to promote mergers and acquisitions. (6) when it comes to the creation of the stabilization fund, the governor of the people's Bank of China said that he was studying it.

2. On September 26th, the Politburo meeting made a big plan! We will implement vigorous interest rate cuts and strive to boost the capital market.

3. On the evening of September 26, three major measures promoted the entry of medium-and long-term funds into the market! The Central Financial Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued important documents.

4. On the evening of September 29th, the stock mortgage interest rate fell to the ground.

5. On October 8, the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference to introduce the relevant situation of "systematically implementing a package of incremental policies to promote the upward structure of the economy, and the development trend continues to improve."

6. On October 9, a number of banks reiterated that credit funds are strictly prohibited from flowing into the housing market, stock market and other areas.

July, October 10, the central bank 500 billion yuan "swap facility" landed

8. On October 12, the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference on the morning of October 12, at which the relevant responsible person of the Ministry of Finance introduced the relevant situation of "strengthening the countercyclical adjustment of fiscal policy and promoting high-quality economic development," and answered questions raised by reporters.

Future forecast:Due to the intensive release of the policy, Chinese goods showed a peak season trend of gold, silver and silver at the end of September and the beginning of October. As far as PVC products are concerned, spot prices have basically risen to the level of late August. From the point of view of the policy release on the 12th, the two cities are still expected to rise in the short term or in the short term, but the medium and long term will still face some pressure.