Methanol: Futures range fluctuates and spot prices continue to be weak

On October 11th, the methanol market price index was 2083.6, down 7.53 from yesterday, down 0.36% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 10:

China CFR 297-303 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 110111cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR US $347-348 per ton, Ping

European FOB 361.5-362.5 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2110 (- 2030), North: 1990-2030 (0), South: 2040 (0), Lunan: 2240 (0), Henan: 2180-2200 (- 40), Shanxi: 2140-2200 (- 20), Port: 2510-2530 (- 10)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 170-250 (0ax 20), North Line-South Shandong 230-260 (0max 0), South Line-North Shandong 220-250 (- 10 pm 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-220 (0max 0)

Spot marketToday, the methanol market price continues to be weak, the futures market range is volatile, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the market operators have a wait-and-see mood towards the future, and the enthusiasm for restocking in the market is not good. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas fell within a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern line around 2040 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday on the northern line and 1990-2030 yuan / ton on the northern line, with limited downstream demand and no pessimism among operators. The market price fluctuation in Shandong, the main consumer area, is limited, with 2240 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2170-2200 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, with a reduction of 80 yuan / ton at the low end, the traditional downstream demand increment is limited, the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is general, and a small number of low-price purchases. The trend of market quotations in North China varies. Hebei quotes 2250-2300 yuan / ton today, while the low-end price is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. Traders hold more goods, mainly more shipments, and the fundamentals are weak; Shanxi quotes 2140-2200 yuan / ton today, and the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. Traders have a poor mentality of holding goods and actively let the goods be shipped.

Port market:Today, the methanol futures range fluctuates. Spot rigid demand procurement; mid-month contract buying and selling, moderate price transactions, forward shipments at high prices, arbitrage and exchange negotiations, the basis continues to be weak. It's a good deal. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2510-2525, base difference 01: 10 prime 15: 10 transaction: 2505-2530, base difference 01: 12 pound 20: 10 transaction: 2515-2540, base difference 01: 20 shock 25: 11 transaction: 2535-2550, base difference 01: 36 pound 40.

Future forecast:With the end of the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of market transportation, some manufacturers in the main producing areas have a certain demand for restocking, but at present, the mood of restocking in the lower reaches after the holiday is not as expected, and the futures market is high. The overall trading atmosphere in the market has weakened compared with the previous period, and manufacturers in the main producing areas are still dominated by warehousing in the short term. At present, the macro-positive support is gradually weakening, the methanol period is now high, some operators hold a certain wait-and-see mood for the future, the overall enthusiasm for restocking in the market may be relatively limited, and it is expected that the spot market price of methanol may be narrowly lowered in the short term. however, in the later stage, we should also pay attention to macro policy, coal prices, plant operation and downstream demand follow-up.