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PVC Futures Analysis:V2501 contract opening price: 5570, highest price: 5607, lowest price: 5541, position: 828010, settlement price: 5574, yesterday settlement: 5575, down 1, daily trading volume: 1091025 lots, precipitated capital: 3.242 billion, capital inflow: 19.58 million.
List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton
PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market are basically maintained, and prices in various regions are adjusted slightly. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 10 yuan / ton in North China, 30 yuan / ton in East China, 20-30 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, stable in Central China and stable in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprise factory price part of the make-up decline behavior, the decline is basically about 50 yuan / ton, including the ethylene process and off-site warehouse prices down synchronously. The futures market is arranged in a narrow horizontal range, and the quotations of traders in various regions of the spot market are adjusted flexibly, and the spot price and one-mouthed price coexist. Among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(80-150-180), South China 01 contract-(0-50), North 01 contract-(310-380-450), Southwest part of the supply 01 contract-(560). On the whole, traders have a positive offer, and there are some urgent low-price sources in the market, but it is difficult to close a deal at a high price in the spot market, a small part of the negotiations, low enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement downstream, and weak transactions in the spot market.
From the perspective of futures:The opening price of PVC2501 contract is mainly adjusted in a narrow range, and the fluctuation range of the price is narrowed. After the start of morning trading, the futures price reached an all-day high, then continued to sort out, and the price fell first and then rose in late afternoon trading. 2501 contracts range from 5541 to 5607 throughout the day, with a spread of 66. 01 contracts with an increase of 860 positions, with 828010 positions so far, 2505 contracts closing at 5869 and 111679 positions.
PVC Future Forecast:
In terms of futures:PVC2501 contract price volatility narrowed, Friday session throughout the day only 66 points, the price trend seems to be ups and downs, but the actual range is relatively small. At present, the state of the horizontal market, in which the long and short are lack of a certain direction. The technical level shows that the opening of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is still expanding, and the KD line at the daily level shows a dead-forked trend. In terms of trading volume, the empty opening of 23.8% is higher than that of 23.3%, and the small change in position also highlights that the current direction is not clear. At present, the spot market also lacks certain guidelines, and there are good things to talk about at the level of supply and demand. in the short term, we think that the fluctuation of futures prices may continue to be sorted out between the middle and upper tracks, but we do not rule out the small pull-up after the landing of the policy.
Spot aspect:According to the horizontal trend, both long and short are entangled. On the one hand, due to the intensive policy release and subsequent expectations, they are not willing to enter and open positions in the current position, while the spot market is the same. Production enterprises are weak in price adjustment. On the other hand, for the bulls, although there are expectations, but the previous high caused by the rapid decline, so far a large decline, even if there is a certain pull-up performance, is expected to co-exist risk. Therefore, at present, the long and short are relatively tangled, and the turnover in the spot market is weak. Although the spot price and the one-bite price coexist, when the downstream conflicts with the high price, it is appropriate to narrow the pace of procurement. In the case that the price rise is mostly driven by policy, there are not many fundamental variables, and the factors of supply and demand are not enough to produce large fluctuations, so the spot market of PVC may be mainly sorted out in the short term.
