Analysis of soda ash market
Prices in some areas of the soda ash market in China have been reduced within a narrow range today. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1,250 - 1,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,250 - 1,350 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1,400 - 1,650 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,550 - 1,650 yuan/ton. The start of the soda plant is relatively stable, and the market supply is still high; after the holiday, inquiries in the soda ash market have resumed one after another, but the downstream willingness to obtain goods is limited; due to the unsatisfactory follow-up of new orders, the inventory of some manufacturers has increased, and shipping pressure still exists.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on October 11, was 1473 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1517 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.81% within the day. The intraday high was 1518 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1472 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1302487 lots, a month-on-month increase of 27454 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices generally maintained a narrow range of fluctuations, and rose slightly in late trading with market sentiment. Recently, the fundamentals of soda ash itself have not changed much, and the sentiment in the spot market is weakening. Some manufacturers are rushing to lower prices. However, the overall manufacturers still have orders waiting for them, and the pressure is not obvious. At present, it is a policy window period, and market fluctuations are dominated by macro-factors. First, the US cpi data released last night exceeded expectations, and the US re-inflation expectations showed signs. The market predicts that the Fed's interest rate cut rate and rate may slow down. As a result, the performance margins of commodities are theoretically stronger than other risky assets. The overall market's late pull-up may indicate that the market has certain expectations for the upcoming September China economic data. In view of the September manufacturing PMI released at the beginning of the month showing signs of recovery, the market has certain games and risk aversion for subsequent economic data. The current market volatility has narrowed, but the frequency of fluctuations has increased and market conflicts have intensified. The focus of follow-up attention will still be on whether the content of tomorrow's financial conference can provide policy guidance to further support the recovery of sentiment.
market outlook
Soda ash companies operate steadily and move slightly, and start-up fluctuates within a narrow range; downstream companies have a more cautious purchasing attitude and a strong wait-and-see attitude; under the game of supply and demand, soda ash market prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.
