Daily review of urea: Demand is following up and slowing down, market trading atmosphere is weakening (October 10)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiluoduo data, the urea small particle price index on October 10 was 1955.00, down 7.86 from yesterday, 0.40% from the previous month, and 19.90% from the same period last year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR501 contract is 1851, the highest price is 1860, the lowest price is 1812, the settlement price is 1840, and the closing price is 1817. Compared with the previous trading day, the closing price decreased by 31% and 1.68% compared with the previous trading day. The whole-day fluctuation range is 1812-1860. The margin of the Shandong area has increased by 7181 positions today, and the position has been held so far by 174447 positions.

Urea futures prices today continue to be weak and mainly downward. The current market trading logic in its own weak fundamentals and macro sentiment callback, the post-holiday macro weakening spot market cools synchronously, positive feedback ends temporarily, and under the premise of stable follow-up supply, demand improvement expectations are also difficult to change the loose pattern of supply and demand, and big price repression still exists. In the short term, we should pay attention to whether the fiscal policy can give a policy notice to further stimulate market sentiment at the press conference of the State Council Office on Saturday, before which the urea market may fluctuate weakly with the overall environment.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the price of urea market in China is weak and downward.The downstream follow-up rate slows down one after another, the trading sentiment weakens on the floor, and the enthusiasm of the operators to pick up the goods simultaneously decreases, resulting in the uplink of urea prices being restricted. However, based on the fact that the orders to be issued by the factory still have some support, the short-term quotation is firm and the downward range is limited..

Specifically, the price in Northeast China has been raised to 1940-1970 yuan / ton. The price in East China has been reduced to 1870-1910 yuan / ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in central China has been reduced to 1880-2010 yuan / ton, and the price of large particles has been reduced to 1980-2010 yuan / ton. Prices in North China have been raised to 1810-1980 yuan per ton. The price in South China has been reduced to 2000-2080 yuan / ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1960-2050 yuan / ton. Prices in southwest China are stable at 1900-2250 yuan / ton.

Future forecast:

In terms of factories, the transaction speed of new orders from manufacturers has slowed down, and there are still a large number of orders to be sent, but the inventory is still at a high level, and the inventory of manufacturers is not proportional to the volume of shipments. some enterprises take the initiative to reduce prices and sell under pressure, and the focus of negotiations in the field has shifted down. part of the quotation is temporarily stable and the actual transaction negotiation is the main. In terms of the market, the trading mood on the market has weakened, and the atmosphere has cooled somewhat compared with the previous period. The volume of new orders in mainstream factories has been reduced, and traders have mostly allowed profits to be sold upside down. The actual trading volume in the market has decreased, and the current market fluctuates in a narrow range. Business confidence weakens, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. On the supply side, there are many maintenance plans for enterprise installations. at present, Nissan in the industry is basically maintained at the level of 190000 tons, and the supply pressure remains in a short period of time, and the pressure on enterprise inventory continues. In terms of demand, most of the crops in various regions are nearing the end of the autumn harvest, and the agricultural fertilizer purchase is about to usher in the off-season of fertilizer use this year. The follow-up agricultural demand procurement is mainly based on reserve demand, followed up with a small amount, and the demand side shows a weak downward trend. Maintain rigid demand procurement.

Generally speaking, the current urea market downstream follow-up mood is not high, more wait-and-see mentality, in addition, the supply side continues to maintain a high level, market supply and demand situation is weak, it is expected that the urea market price shock downside probability is greater in a short time.