Daily Review of Urea: Continued willingness to follow up on the market declined and the market consolidated mainly (October 9)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiluoduo data, the urea small particle price index was 1962.86 on October 9, down 5.91% from yesterday, 0.30% lower than the previous month, and 20.15% lower than the same period last year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR501 contract is 1864, the highest price is 1867, the lowest price is 1832, the settlement price is 1848, and the closing price is 1838. The closing price is 55% lower than that of the previous trading day, and 2.91% lower than the previous trading day. The whole-day fluctuation range is 1832-1867. The margin of the Shandong area has increased by 12072 positions today, and the position has been held so far by 167266.

Urea futures prices continue to weaken today. The early macro sentiment continued to decline, and today the market again reported news that the follow-up fiscal policy might be lower than expected, while the excess logic of urea itself remained unchanged, although the follow-up demand was expected to improve to a certain extent. however, under the premise that the big logic cannot be broken, the market is still dominated by suppressing disk profits. The follow-up needs to observe whether the actual financial content and demand release at the press conference of the New Office of the State Council this Saturday can exceed expectations to improve the phased contradiction between supply and demand, before which it may be difficult to see a substantial rise in urea prices.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the quotations of Chinese urea factories have been lowered, and after the factory offer has been raised, the willingness to continue to follow up in the lower reaches has slowed down, the turnover of new orders has weakened, and the trading atmosphere has weakened, but at present, based on the support of pending orders, prices tend to stabilize in a short time.

Specifically, the price in Northeast China is stable at 1930-1970 yuan / ton. The price in East China has been reduced to 1890-1930 yuan / ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in central China has been reduced to 1900-2020 yuan / ton, and the price of large particles has been raised to 2000-2060 yuan / ton. Prices in North China have been raised to 1810-1970 yuan per ton. The price in South China has been reduced to 2020-2080 yuan / ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1960-2050 yuan / ton. Prices in southwest China are stable at 1900-2250 yuan / ton.

Future forecast:

In terms of factories, the new order transaction increment of most manufacturers, waiting for orders to be issued around the middle of this month, the enterprise mentality to stand up the price, the new single quotation increased more, and some manufacturers reduced the number of new order transactions after the price increase, but at present, based on the support of pending orders, the quotation is mainly stable for the time being, and the fluctuation range is limited. In the market, as market prices continue to rise, operators' emotional fluctuations increase, sentiment rises and then falls, new orders in the market also slow down, showing a downward trend, and the overall downstream follow-up efforts are not as strong as expected. the focus of market negotiations is also declining slightly one after another. On the supply side, Nissan short-term high-level operation, later storage and maintenance equipment, industry supply is expected to reduce, spot supply is tight, quotation is expected to rise strongly. In terms of demand, the downstream maintenance of rigid demand is mainly followed up, with the continuous development of autumn harvest replenishment in some areas, the temperature of the early delayed autumn fertilizer market, industrial and agricultural procurement, and continuous replenishment follow-up in the short term.

Overall, the current urea Chinese market transaction activity has slowed down slightly, the market is temporarily in a consolidation situation, downstream autumn fertilizer demand to carry out more follow-up replenishment, urea market prices are expected to be stable in a short period of time, pay more attention to the actual situation of the market.