Daily review of urea: The urea market is stable and improving under the stimulation of macro favorable policies (October 8)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiluoduo data, the urea small particle price index on October 8 was 1968.77, an increase of 44.86 over the pre-holiday period, a month-on-month increase of 2.33% and a year-on-year drop of 20.85%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR501 contract is 1938, the highest price is 1940, the lowest price is 1855, the settlement price is 1893, and the closing price is 1865. The closing price is 16% lower than that of the previous trading day, and 0.85% lower than the previous trading day. The whole-day fluctuation range is 1855-1940.

Today, urea futures prices weakened sharply after opening high, mainly due to the high decline of macro sentiment. During the holiday period, the favor of global funds for Chinese assets led to continued excitement in China's financial market, and the morning stock index opened. However, the news that credit funds were tightened at the level of financial regulation and the actual content of the NDRC press conference fell sharply, which led to a lack of further acceptance of macro sentiment. On the spot side, the urea surplus structure has not been broken, although there is some positive feedback in the market, but the demand driven by market sentiment is limited, and the market also has arbitrage selling behavior. On the whole, the current market logic still lies in the evolution of macro logic. although market sentiment has declined after the holiday, the problems of subsequent policy increase and expected improvement still cannot be falsified, and the market may return temporarily before waiting for a new drive. but it is not recommended to be too bearish.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the prices of Chinese urea factories rose steadily and slightly, and before the festival, macro released positive policies one after another, the stock market and futures showed an upward trend, the demand of the urea industry picked up, the supply shrank, and the market trading sentiment was constantly boosted. Prices are stable and upward.

Specifically, the price in Northeast China has been raised to 1930-1970 yuan / ton. Prices in East China have been raised to 1900-1950 yuan / ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in central China has been raised to 1920-2020 yuan / ton, and the price of large particles has been raised to 2000-2020 yuan / ton. Prices in North China have been raised to 1800-1970 yuan per ton. Prices in South China have been raised to 2020-2100 yuan / ton. The price in the northwest region has been raised to 1960-2050 yuan / ton. The price in the southwest region has been raised to 1900-2250 yuan / ton.

Future forecast:

In terms of factories, before the festival, most manufacturers received enough orders, during the National Day period, the main cash pre-received orders, enterprise shipments improved, quotations continued to rise steadily, urea market prices are rising day by day, under the influence of the market atmosphere, the new orders of some manufacturers increased again. In terms of the market, the trading sentiment in the festival warmed up again, synchronously boosting the trading atmosphere in the market, the trading volume of urea increased, the focus of trading continued to move up, and the current market was mainly strong. On the supply side, during the National Day holiday, the start of equipment in the industry has not changed significantly, and the supply continues to be sufficient. The current equipment maintenance plan in some areas, Nissan may be downward in the later period. In terms of demand, the fertilizer market advanced slowly in the early stage of this autumn, until the National Day period, the market accelerated, industry and agriculture in the mainstream region followed up procurement, and there were obvious signs of improvement in the delivery of compound fertilizer plants downstream. After the festival, it is the stage of concentrated delivery of fertilizer in autumn, and the increase in industry demand is conducive to the upward quotation.

Generally speaking, the current urea market in China is in the stage of concentrated delivery of fertilizer in autumn, coupled with the downward expectation of Nissan in the industry, the emotional side has been boosted, which is good for urea prices to rise, and it is expected that the urea market will slow down and stalemate in a short period of time, and prices will rise steadily and slightly.