Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market is operating stably. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is 1,450 - 1,600 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,450 - 1,700 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1,350 - 1,550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,450 - 1,600 yuan/ton. Today, the Tianjin Soda Plant's equipment was temporarily stopped, and the market started to hover at a high level; downstream demand was average, and procurement gradually stabilized; soda ash manufacturers shipped slowly before the holiday, inventory pressure was still high, and market prices were temporarily stable, showing a smooth transition trend.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on September 30, was 1573 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1699 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.63% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1721 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1563 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1056377 lots, a month-on-month-on-month-on-month.
Soda ash futures prices continued to rise sharply today, mainly due to the continued boost of macro sentiment and relevant sector policies. Recently, due to the opening up of futures and cash arbitrage space, the upstream shipment situation has improved, and there is a willingness to hold prices. The production and sales of downstream glass factories have also strengthened recently, with quotations raised, and their own profit levels showing signs of repairing, which has also improved their ability to undertake raw materials. Overall, the overall profit repair of the industrial chain driven by the current macro sentiment has begun to appear. The key issues in the follow-up are whether policies can be increased and whether terminal demand can be supported by policies to improve month-on-month.
market outlook
The start-up of soda ash companies is basically stable and the market supply is sufficient; while some downstream glass companies continue to reduce production and operate, the recovery on the demand side is relatively limited; it is expected that the soda ash market will continue its current trend after the holiday, with the overall consolidation of a narrow range, with little room for price fluctuations.
