Methanol: Spot prices in China fluctuated and increased, and auctions from manufacturers in major producing areas were smooth

On September 29, the methanol market price index was 2,031.58, an increase of 54.7 from the previous working day and an increase of 2.77% month-on-month.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on September 27:

China CFR 295-297/ton, up 5/ton;

U.S. FOB 104-105 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon;

Southeast Asia CFR 330.5-331.5 USD/ton, flat;

European FOB 334.5-335.5 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.

Today's price summary:

Guanzhong: 1980-2060 (0), North Line:1970-2000 (90), South Line: 2000 (100), South Shandong:2165 (0), Henan:2150-2215 (40), Shanxi: 1900-2070 (0), Port:2505-2510 (40)

Freight:

North Line-Northern Shandong 205-260 (0/0), North Line-Southern Shandong 260-310 (0/0), South Line-Northern Shandong 240-260 (0/0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-240 (0/0)

spot market: Today, the methanol spot market price fluctuated upward. Although there was no guidance from the futures market, the market atmosphere was improving. The auction prices of some major companies pushed up slightly, transactions were smooth, and traders 'conversion prices rose simultaneously. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been increased. The price for the southern line is around 2000 yuan/ton, and the price for the northern line is around 1,970 -2000 yuan/ton. Among them, Changqing's secondary price is increased by 70 yuan/ton to 2150 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal. The small order is quoted at 2160 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal; Yulin Yankuang's starting price for methanol this week was quoted at 1920 yuan/ton of factory cash withdrawal, with the quantity of 3000 tons, and finally all transactions were completed at 1950 yuan/ton; Rongxin's starting price for methanol was quoted as a factory withdrawal of 1930 yuan/ton, and the quantity was 2000 tons. In the end, all transactions were completed at 1970 yuan/ton. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have been adjusted within a narrow range, with 2165 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,170 - 2,190 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The low-end is stable. Mainstream manufacturers have sold at a premium, and some manufacturers have basically ended their inventory allocation. The market quotation in North China is stable. Today's price in Hebei is 2,070 - 2,120 yuan/ton; today's price in Shanxi is 1,900 - 2,070 yuan/ton. The mentality of the spot market and operators is improving, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved slightly.

Market outlook forecast:At present, the macro positive support is obvious. Although there is no guidance on the futures market, the market atmosphere is improving. As manufacturers sell at low prices in the early stage, the overall inventory arrangement is relatively smooth. Most companies in China have tentatively pushed up the pre-holiday quotations. Downstream terminals and traders have a certain bottom-hunting mentality. The overall market transaction atmosphere has improved compared with the previous period. However, as the National Day holiday approaches, some companies have gradually delisted from the market. It is expected that the short-term methanol spot market price fluctuations will be limited, but coal prices need to be paid attention to in the later stage. Operation status of on-site equipment and follow-up status of downstream demand.