Urea Daily Review: The National Day holiday is approaching, and the number of low-end quotations by companies increases (September 26)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiluoduo data, the urea small particle price index on Sept. 26 was 1904.36, up 2.27% from yesterday, up 0.12% from the previous month, and down 24.95% from a year earlier.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR501 contract is 1810, the highest price is 1823, the lowest price is 1795, the settlement price is 1810, and the closing price is 1810. The closing price is 16% lower than that of the previous trading day, and 0.88% lower than the previous trading day. The whole-day fluctuation range is 1795-1823X 01 contract Shandong area basis 01contract today reduced 1992 positions, so far held 185303 positions.

Today, urea futures prices are mainly weak volatility. In the near future, the self-drive of urea market is not obvious, and the fluctuation of futures price is mainly affected by the macro mood of the whole market. Under the premise that the short-term urea market is lack of actual drive, its own fundamental suppression is still strong, and due to its own variety characteristics, the speculative liquidity driven by macro emotion is relatively limited. Overall, although urea is currently lack of actual upward drive, the expectation of subsequent reserve demand is still there, and the bottom-reading funds have also been macroscopically coordinated, with lower support or relatively stronger, and we can wait and see how macro emotions evolve in the short term.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China UreaThe manufacturer offered steadily and slightly upwards. recently, with the approach of the holiday, combined with the low market price hovering, downstream low-price replacement order follow-up, new orders have been closed in the market one after another, but the overall fundamental support of supply and demand is still weak, and it is not realistic for prices to continue to rise. Short-term market stalemate is the main.

Specifically, the price in Northeast China is stable at 1880-1920 yuan / ton. Prices in East China have been raised to 1790-1840 yuan / ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in central China has been raised to 1800-2020 yuan / ton, and the price of large particles has been stable at 1890-2020 yuan / ton. Prices in North China have been raised to 1820-1920 yuan per ton. Prices in South China have been raised to 1960-2020 yuan / ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1930-1980 yuan / ton. The price in southwest China has been reduced to 1850-2200 yuan / ton.

Future forecast:

In terms of factories, the low-end supply sales of some manufacturers have improved, and the receipts are gradually sufficient. With the increment of low-price transactions in the market, the offer is also steadily rising. At present, most enterprises adjust their quotations according to their own receipt of orders. In terms of the market, driven by the emotional side of the futures market, the volume of low-end goods in the market has increased significantly recently, the trading atmosphere in the market has improved, the inquiry enthusiasm of the operators has become stronger, the emotional side has warmed up, and the short-term price is the main. On the supply side, with the resumption of work and production of some urea plants this week, the daily output of the industry has reached around 190000 tons, and the industry supply remains high, suppressing the upward range of prices to a certain extent. In terms of demand, the supply of goods at low prices in the market has increased, coupled with the continuous shortening of the time for fertilizer preparation in autumn, with the gradual approach of the holiday, most traders in the lower reaches begin to follow up on the goods in an appropriate amount, but the overall demand side has not been significantly improved, and the industry is still cautious about the future; compound fertilizer enterprises are willing to purchase raw materials at a low level, and the situation is not good.

Generally speaking, at present, the supply of goods at the low end of the urea market in China is increasing, but the fundamentals of supply and demand in the overall industry are still weak. With the National Day holiday approaching, the demand for receiving orders from enterprises is still there. It is expected that the urea market before the festival will mostly maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, and the price rise is difficult to sustain.