Daily Review of Urea: Companies still have demand for acquiring orders before the holiday (September 25)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on September 25 was 1,902.09, an increase of 5.45 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.60%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR501 contract is 1809, the highest price is 1860, the lowest price is 1785, the settlement price is 1826, and the closing price is 1791. The closing price is 23 times higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 1.30% month-on-month. The fluctuation range throughout the day is 1785-1860; The basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is-11; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 13069 lots today, and has held 187290 lots so far.

Today, urea futures prices mainly open higher and lower with the market environment. Driven by macro sentiment and the sharp strengthening of related commodities last night, the market opened higher in early trading and fell back in the afternoon with the market environment. After yesterday's market rose, the spot market showed a certain improvement in sentiment, and transactions improved slightly. Some manufacturers immediately adjusted their prices, but there was still no obvious demand for heavy volume. After the sentiment in the futures market fell, it was temporarily unable to give a practical driver for continued rise. The short-term urea market itself has limited driving forces and mainly changes with the overall macro sentiment.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's ureaMainstream prices in the market stopped falling and rose slightly. Some new orders were sold on the floor. Companies are better to obtain orders at low prices. In order to collect enough orders before the holiday, the quotation may continue to be low and downward, and it is unlikely that it will continue to increase.。

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 1,880 - 1,920 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have been raised to 1,770 - 1,840 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has been lowered to 1,790 -2020 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has been lowered to 1,890 -2020 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have stabilized at 1,700 - 1,920 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have been raised to 1960-2010 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1,930 - 1,980 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China have been lowered to 1,880 - 2,200 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers have a limited number of new acquisitions. Some companies have increased their transactions with low-end goods. Some peripheral companies have not yet received enough orders during the National Day holiday. They continue to relax and lower their quotations to allow profits to attract orders, and use low prices to attract increased transactions from downstream companies. In terms of the market, transactions with low-priced goods on the market were better, and the sentiment of the operators was significantly higher. Some transactions increased, which promoted the market to develop well. The sentiment of the operators was lifted. The current atmosphere in the market was deadlocked and the market was temporarily fluctuating. Market prices were also mixed based on the actual transaction situation. In terms of supply, the industry's operating rate continues to remain at a high level of more than 80%, and the daily output reaches a level of more than 190,000 tons. The industry starts to operate at a high level for a short period of time. On the demand side, downstream purchases are cautious and appropriate, and most of the follow-up is low-end, maintaining on-demand purchases, and the demand side is weak.

On the whole, there are no obvious signs of improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals of the urea market in China. As the National Day holiday approaches, companies still have demand for acquiring orders. It is expected that the urea market may fluctuate steadily before the holiday, and there will still be downward pressure on corporate quotations.