Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the price of soda ash market in China is mixed, and the overall operation is stable. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1,100 - 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,100 - 1,200 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in South China is 1,650 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,750 - 1,850 yuan/ton. The start-up of soda plants fluctuated within a narrow range, and output increased; affected by macro sentiment, downstream demand improved slightly, and the market transaction atmosphere warmed up compared with the previous period; however, under the game of supply and demand, orders were closed in some regions, and the spot market trend was weak and stable.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on September 25, was 1535 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1475 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.73% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1535 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1442 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1240262 lots, a month-on-month period of-64885 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices continued to rise sharply, hitting a daily limit for one time. Yesterday, driven by macro sentiment, the spot market showed positive changes simultaneously. After the current risk-free arbitrage space was opened, the trade volume between the middle and upper reaches began to increase. Some upstream manufacturers also reported news of closing orders again, boosting the market. Some positive feedback. However, there has been no excessive panic in the downstream market for the time being, and it is temporarily difficult to provide further positive feedback on the market. After the futures price rises, it is also facing various hedging and arbitrage pressures. Although macro sentiment has declined today, it has not completely dissipated. The market still has expectations for subsequent fiscal efforts at the time point of the policy window, and it is recommended to wait and see the persistence of macro sentiment in the short term.
market outlook
The soda plant under maintenance in the early stage will gradually improve its operation, and supply will rise to a high level; as the holidays are approaching, the inventory of downstream raw materials is not high, and demand is expected to gradually be released. Some soda ash companies are beginning to save their willingness to hold prices. It is expected that the soda ash market may consolidate in a narrow range in the short term., price fluctuations are relatively limited.
