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PVC Futures Analysis:September 24th V2501 contract opening price: 5190, highest price: 5395, lowest price: 5170, position: 964047, settlement price: 5275, yesterday settlement: 5218, up 57, daily trading volume: 1430515 lots, precipitated capital: 3.636 billion, capital outflow: 97.82 million.
List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton
PVC spot market:Mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market have risen, and the spot market atmosphere has improved. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 30 yuan / ton, East China 30 yuan / ton, South China 30 yuan / ton, Northeast China 50 yuan / ton, Central China 20-30 yuan / ton, and Southwest China 30 yuan / ton. Upstream PVC production enterprises for the futures afternoon price increase, did not make too much feedback, and even some manufacturers in early trading reduced the ex-factory price by 50 yuan / ton. However, the afternoon quotations in various regions of the spot market showed a certain upward performance. Compared with the maintenance of the morning session, the price offer showed a certain exploratory high report, and the basis did not increase much, but the spot price advantage disappeared after the price went up. Among them, East China basis offer 01 contract-(70-150), South China 01 contract-(0-50), North 01 contract-(230-350) The source of goods in southwest China has heard that 01 contract-(500). After the price rose in the afternoon, the inquiry enthusiasm of the downstream increased slightly, but there were fewer transactions in the face of high prices.
From the perspective of futures:PVC2501 contract night trading price opened after the lowest price, slightly upward. After the start of morning trading, the futures price fluctuated in a small range, rising slightly at the end of the morning and rising sharply in the afternoon, with a considerable increase. 2501 contracts range from 5170 to 5395 throughout the day, with a spread of 225,01contract reducing 63901 positions. So far, 964047 positions have been held, 2505 contracts closed at 5645, and positions are 141434.
PVC Future Forecast:
In terms of futures:The operation of the PVC2501 contract price showed a significant upward trend in the afternoon, showing a positive column throughout the day, and the futures price rose further through the middle rail from the lower rail support level. The technical level shows that the daily KD line and MACD line began to show a golden cross trend, but the three-track opening of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) is still downward, and the upward price is more inclined to reduce positions and leave short orders. In terms of transactions, the air level is 27.6% higher than that of 25.5%, and the empty opening rate is 22.0% more than that of 21.7%. With the help of the policy, the dividend brought by the policy is obvious, and most commodities are on the rise in the afternoon. The operation of futures prices in the short term or observe the performance of the post-rally range of 5350-5450.
Spot aspect:First of all, the policy port: 1. The people's Bank of China announced that it will reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points in the near future to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to the financial market. 2. In terms of housing loans, it will reduce the stock mortgage interest rates and unify the minimum down payment ratio of housing loans. Guide commercial banks to reduce the stock mortgage interest rate to near the new mortgage rate, the average decline is expected to be about 0.5 percentage points. 3 will reduce the central bank policy interest rate, and the seven-day reverse repo operation rate will be cut by 0.2 percentage points, from the current 1.7% to 1.5%. 4. Create special re-loans to guide banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders to support repurchase and increase their holdings of shares. 5 the CSRC will issue opinions on promoting the entry of medium-and long-term funds into the market and six measures to promote mergers and acquisitions. PVC fundamentals Taiwan PVC export shipments in October, the FOB price rose US $25 to US $730 FOB, the CIF price remained unchanged. On the whole, the spot market may need to test the sustainability and stability of the rise in the short term.
