Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market is operating weakly. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is 1,550 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,650 - 1,800 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1,300 - 1,550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,400 - 1,600 yuan/ton. The start-up of soda plants fluctuated within a narrow range, and output increased; downstream demand remained just in need of replenishment, and the market transaction atmosphere was weak. Low prices in some regions moderately compensated for the decline. The follow-up of new orders was average, and the soda ash market remained weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on September 24, was 1358 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1442 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.42% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1447 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1355 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1305130 lots, a month-on-month period of-56897 lots.
Soda ash futures prices rebounded sharply today, mainly due to the impact of a series of policy combinations released at the press conference of the State Council Information Office in the morning, which boosted the optimistic expectations of China's financial market. However, soda ash itself was more crowded due to the crowded short positions, and the stampede was more obvious due to risk aversion. Although there has been no significant effective improvement in the fundamentals of soda ash at present, the warming of the macro atmosphere with policy support has given expectations for improving demand in the entire industrial chain. In the short term, attention needs to be paid to how the market transaction logic will transform between expectations and reality. In addition, today's surge in futures prices has basically opened up opportunities for risk-free arbitrage. In the future, we need to focus on observing the inventory flow and hedging pressure between the middle and upper reaches.
market outlook
Affected by factors such as the market and equipment, some manufacturers have adjusted their installation starts within a narrow range; the downstream are mainly wait-and-see, and the purchasing sentiment is relatively light. It is expected that the soda ash market will remain weak and stable in the short term, with a narrow range of consolidation.
