Methanol: Futures market fluctuates at a low level and the spot market continues to decline

On September 23, the methanol market price index was 2024.88, down 26.67 from the previous working day and 1.3% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 30:

China CFR 288-292USD / ton, Ping

Us FOB 106-107 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR US $344-345 per ton, Ping

European FOB 346.5-347.5 euros / ton, down 3 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1930-2010 (- 100), north route: 1960-1970 (- 10), south route: 2000 (- 20), Lunan: 2235-2250 (0), Henan: 2100-2180 (- 70), Shanxi: 2080-2220 (- 10), port: 23752400 (- 30)

Freight:

Northern Route-Northern Shandong 210-270 (20thumb 30), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 260-310 (- 20amp 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-260 (10amp 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-250 (30max 50)

Spot marketToday, methanol market prices are adjusted in a narrow range, local market quotations continue to fall, the futures market continues to weaken, and the mindset of market operators is poor. Although this week is the last week before National Day, the mood of stock preparation downstream is general. There are a large number of auctions in the market today. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas fell within a narrow range, with the quotation on the south line around 2000 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton lower than the previous working day, and the price on the north line around 1960-1970 yuan / ton, and the low end down by 10 yuan / ton. the ex-factory quotation was actively lowered, but the downstream delivery was still cautious, and some manufacturers were accompanied by the phenomenon of failed auction. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are adjusted in a narrow range, with 2235-2250 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2230-2250 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, with a stable low end and a weaker trading atmosphere. The fluctuation of market quotation in North China is limited, Hebei quotation is 2200-2250 yuan / ton today, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is rich, and the negotiation atmosphere is poor; Shanxi quotation today is 2080-2220 yuan / ton, the terminal demand is depressed and weak, and the inquiry atmosphere is light.

Port market:Today, methanol futures fell in volatility. On-demand procurement within the month, a small amount of unilateral higher than low; paper arbitrage and exchange negotiations, the basis is slightly stronger, the monthly price difference is reduced. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2375-2400, base difference 01 "30 prime" 35 position 9 deal: 2380-2400, base difference 01 "38 prime market 42 position 10 deal: 2385-2400, base difference 01" 45 prime market 50 transaction 10 deal: 2400-2420, base difference 01 "58 lead 62 exchange 11 transaction: 2400-2420, base difference 01" 60 prime 62.

Future forecast:Recently, the futures market has fluctuated at a low level, and the industry in the market is obviously pessimistic about the future. Although this week is the last week of the National Day short holiday, the inventory of raw materials in the downstream factories is more sufficient, and there is no obvious demand for stock preparation before the festival. however, manufacturers in the main production areas have recently increased their inventory slightly under the influence of poor shipments, and most enterprises store a certain amount of inventory demand in order to reduce inventory. At present, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may continue to decline slightly, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.