Daily review of urea: Poor follow-up on new orders, prices were under pressure and fell mainly before the National Day holiday (September 23)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiluoduo data, the urea small particle price index on September 23 was 1914.09, down 12.27% from last Friday, down 0.64% from the previous month, and 26.54% from a year earlier.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR501 contract is 1740, the highest price is 1760, the lowest price is 1731, the settlement price is 1750, and the closing price is 1752. Compared with the previous trading day, the closing price decreased by 18% and 1.02% compared with the previous trading day. The whole-day fluctuation range is 1731-1760. The margin of the Shandong area has increased by 9796 positions today, and the position has been held so far by 208424 positions.

Today, urea futures prices fluctuated mainly in a narrow range, and early trading was mainly affected by the overall weakness of the night commodity market last Friday, which opened sharply lower, and then fluctuated with the narrow range of market environment. On the whole, the fundamentals of urea have not been significantly improved and driven at present, and it is difficult to be driven by rising under the continuation of the main logic of strong supply and weak demand, but under the support of certain costs, the market is dominated by low shocks for the time being. short-term urea self-driven insufficient price fluctuations or run with the overall market environment.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China UreaThe manufacturer's offer is mixed.With the reduction of pending orders in some factories, shipments are under pressure, and quotations are gradually reduced, falling to around 1800 yuan / ton, but the downstream follow-up sentiment is still relatively cautious, maintaining rigid demand to take goods in the majority, and the transaction has not yet been fully sold.

Specifically, the price in Northeast China is stable at 1930-1950 yuan / ton. The price in East China has been reduced to 1790-1840 yuan / ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in central China has been reduced to 1800-2020 yuan / ton, and the price of large particles has been stable at 1900-2020 yuan / ton. The price in North China has been reduced to 1710-1960 yuan / ton. The price in South China has been reduced to 1970-2010 yuan / ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1930-1980 yuan / ton. Prices in southwest China are stable at 1950-2200 yuan / ton.

Future forecast:

In terms of factories, the receipt situation of manufacturers has improved, but the persistence is general, some enterprises are under pressure on shipments, and the quotation has been lowered. With the approach of the National Day holiday, some enterprises may successively introduce corresponding low-price policy receipts, and the quotation is still expected to decline. In terms of the market, the trading atmosphere continues to weaken, enterprises are still facing the pressure of receiving orders on National Day, and the market prices are frequent; downstream is affected by the mentality of buying up and not buying down, the pace of follow-up is cautious, and some factories and trade are expected to copy the bottom to follow up. Short-term upstream and downstream stalemate game, caution has become the main tone of the market. On the supply side, the daily production of urea has gradually increased and is expected to be more than 190000 tons, the average daily output continues to fluctuate at a high level, and the supply side continues to be negative. In terms of demand, the downstream rigid demand is mainly buying, the agricultural bargain is properly covered, the operating rate of compound fertilizer goes down slightly, and the demand for raw materials is limited; the demand for industrial plates remains lukewarm, the demand is weak, and the purchase is limited, and the overall demand is advancing slowly.

Overall, the current urea market supply in China continues to increase, downstream follow-up is slow, near the National Day holiday, factories may continue to reduce prices to receive orders, downstream bottom to buy, the market atmosphere is expected to improve, urea market prices are expected to remain weak before the National Day, mainly, market consolidation operation.