PVC: Futures opened higher and lower, increased positions, Bollinger Band narrowed, and spot high-end prices were frustrated

PVC Futures Analysis:V2501 contract opening price: 5290, highest price: 5292, lowest price: 5215, position: 1026625, settlement price: 5246, yesterday settlement: 5226, up 20, daily trading volume: 949009 lots, precipitated capital: 3.758 billion, capital inflow: 24.89 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:Mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market weakened slightly, especially at the high end. Compared with the valuation, the low end of North China fell by 20 yuan / ton, the low end of East China by 50 yuan / ton, the high end of South China by 50 yuan / ton, the low end of Northeast China by 50 yuan / ton, and Central China by 40 yuan / ton. the southwest is stable. Upstream PVC production enterprises wait and see price stability, coinciding with Friday most enterprises did not see obvious adjustment action, but the first generation of contracts signed not much, mainly based on the basic quantity. The daily futures price has weakened, and the price quoted by traders in various regions has declined slightly, especially the acceptance of the high price is not good, the point price and the one-mouthed price coexist, there is not much inquiry, and most of the transactions tend to be placed at a low order. Among them, the base difference offer 01 contract in East China-(50-100-150), the 01 contract in South China-(0-50 or + 30), the 01 contract in North China-(330-350), and the 01 contract in Southwest China-(500). On the whole, there is a small negotiation in the spot market, and the basis offer does not have a price advantage. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high.

From the perspective of futures:The night price of PVC2501 contract opened high and opened low, although the PVC rose significantly on Thursday, but the night market showed a downward trend. After the start of morning trading, futures prices weakened further, followed by low and narrow range consolidation, and also fluctuated in a small range in the afternoon. 2501 contracts fluctuated in the range of 5215-5292 throughout the day, with a spread of 77. 01 contracts with an increase of 18368 positions, with 1026625 positions so far, 2505 contracts closing at 5452 and 154628 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures:The operation of the PVC2501 contract price first narrowed, and the overall performance during the week was not as wide as the Wednesday and Thursday version of the previous two days, and slightly increased the position and opened high and low, and the disk still showed a certain short trend. In terms of transaction, it opened 24.0% more than the empty opening 26.0%, and the technical level showed that the opening of the third rail of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) narrowed. As well as the usual experience, the narrowing market is basically the beginning of the new market, but the current situation of low-level operation, the overall upward strength has weakened, the daily line and other KD lines cross, the MACD line continues to show a dead-forked trend. In the short term, we think that the operation of futures prices may still test the performance of the low range of 5170-5230.

Spot aspect:From the current commodity sentiment, after yesterday's sharp increase, today, on the one hand, commodities enter the horizontal stage, the overall cultural commodity index runs between the middle and upper tracks, followed by a certain differentiation of commodities. In terms of PVC, there is a weakening trend in the long-term empty environment, on the one hand, due to the empty role attributes, on the other hand, PVC fundamentals are not supported enough. Import and export data released in August, imports of 2.06 tons, exports of 201800 tons. The month-on-month increase in exports complements China's weak domestic demand to some extent. In the outer disk, the price of international crude oil futures market rose as the market was digesting the impact of the Fed's sharp cut in interest rates by 50 basis points, and the geopolitical risk was exacerbated by Israel's attack on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. On the whole, PVC spot market prices will still be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term, but the midline will face some short-term pressure after the National Day.