Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market is temporarily operating steadily. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is 1,700 - 1,750 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,800 - 1,900 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton. The start of the soda ash market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the overall supply increased; while downstream demand showed no obvious signs of increasing volume, production and marketing pressure further increased, inventories continued to accumulate, and the soda ash market remained weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on September 20, was 1374 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1341 yuan/ton, an increase of-1.83% within the day. The intraday high was 1384 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1334 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1407431 lots, a month-on-month +46154 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices fell from high levels. The emotional rebound driven by yesterday's policy news once again returned to the reality of weak fundamentals after China's expected interest rate cuts fell short today. Although the current spot market for soda ash has undergone microscopic changes such as midstream dewarehousing and a slight improvement in demand for light soda, it has not yet been able to effectively improve the overall market trend. The suppression of absolute high inventories and the continued weakening of downstream undertaking capabilities have made it difficult for the market to open up. Space for growth, upstream manufacturers have no reason to raise prices. To break the deadlock in the short term, we still need to see whether sufficient improvement opportunities can be provided at the macro level. Before that, soda ash prices may remain weak for the time being.
market outlook
In the early stage, the maintenance equipment of some soda plants will gradually resume and be put into operation, and the output will increase slightly; the downstream is mainly in need of replenishment. It is expected that the soda ash market will remain weak in the short term, and the overall pressure on supply and demand will remain high.
