Daily Review of Urea: Market prices continue to fall, Urea prices continue to fall (September 19)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on September 19 was 1,936.36, a decrease of 14.68 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.20%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the urea UR501 contract is 1748, the highest price is 1783, the lowest price is 1737, the settlement price is 1759, and the closing price is 1769. The closing price is 7% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.40% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 1737-1783; the basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is 51; the 01 contract has increased 870 lots today, and the position held so far is 196751 lots.

Today's urea futures prices were mainly affected by overall market sentiment, opening lower and moving higher. The fundamentals of strong supply and weak demand for urea itself have not improved significantly, and the price suppression is still strong. However, macro sentiment at home and abroad has fluctuated greatly recently, and urea prices have fluctuated repeatedly under the combined influence of speculative funds. Today's market rumors that China's policy news has boosted market sentiment, but the sustainability of the emotional rebound needs to be considered. The general logic of weakening fundamentals has not been broken, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the rebound will drive downstream purchases in the spot market. Emotional issues.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market continued to be weak and fell. New orders from companies were in poor condition. Market prices continued to fall, prices continued to decline, and corporate quotations continued to lower orders.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have been lowered to 1,930 - 1,950 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have been lowered to 1,800 - 1,880 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has been lowered to 1,830 - 2,050 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has been lowered to 1,910 - 2,020 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have been lowered to 1,760 - 1,960 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have been lowered to 2010-2050 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1,930 - 1,980 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 1,950 - 2,300 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, after the holidays, the transactions of new orders from manufacturers were weak and fell short of expectations. Most companies are facing pressure from high inventories, and shipping pressure is increasing day by day. Quotes have been lowered one after another, and new prices on the market have continued to fall. In terms of the market, after the factory's quotation was lowered, the transaction of new orders was still weak. The pessimistic atmosphere in the field was difficult to boost, and there was no obvious positive situation. The mentality of the operators was mostly pessimistic. Before the National Day holiday, the market was mainly closed with a high probability of weakness. In terms of supply, Nissan continues to rise, corporate inventories remain high and continue to accumulate stocks. The current industry's daily output has surged to more than 190,000 tons, and corporate inventories are also constantly increasing. The negative atmosphere on the market is more obvious, and short-term supply The loose trend will continue. On the demand side, downstream procurement has a cautious attitude in follow-up, continuing to wait and see, with appropriate amounts of orders, limited new orders being sold, and no large-scale transaction volume has supported the market.

On the whole, the current post-holiday trading in the urea market in China is flat, and the situation of new acquisitions by manufacturers is not good. They continue to cut prices and collect orders. There is still a certain period of time before downstream replenishment during the National Day holiday. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to be adjusted downward in a short period of time.