PVC: The two cities are expected to be killed, and autumn is approaching and winter is approaching

Foreword:Recently, the commodity market has continued to be short, and PVC has a poor trend. It is expected that the two markets are facing deep downward, the main and connected contracts have reached their previous lows, and the spot market has also been pushed back to the low range. Whether the market outlook can operate opportunities has always been a concern for the industrial chain.

PVC market analysis:1. First of all, from the perspective of the futures market, after the main contract was changed, the main even contract showed a certain upward performance from mid-August 16. The high point of the market futures price of 5756 also became a small high point. However, after the main force was changed, the 2501 contract showed a clear trend of short positions increasing positions and falling endlessly, and the low point of 5245 replaced the previous low of 5299 to become the new lowest point. 2. The spot fundamentals of PVC have been restricted by strong supply, weak demand and high inventory. On the one hand, the weak fundamentals have caused the short market to rage. On the other hand, the spot market has been pushed back to the low range twice, and prices in some parts of the northwest have fallen below 5000 yuan/ton. The continuous decline in spot prices has not triggered an improvement in transactions. On the contrary, in the face of continuous adjustment in the market, except for the low-point prices that were just needed, there is no speculative demand or even the willingness to hoard goods. 3. With the trend of strengthening deadline linkage, warehouse receipts on the market remain high. 4. Weak fundamentals have caused the two markets to continue to be short, and there is no obvious policy orientation in the near future. Looking at the PVC market throughout the year, its rising stage relies mostly on policy support, so there is no clear news. Next, the trend of the two markets in the PVC period is obviously short.

PVC market outlook forecast:

Futures: The futures price of the PVC2501 contract has been running sideways at a low level recently. On the one hand, the trend trend has made the trend line lose its guiding significance. On the other hand, the trend of sideways has formed a significant drag on market expectations. Time will be lost in a short period of sideways consolidation. The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) have narrowed. Although the daily level KD line shows a golden cross and the MACD line crosses, the sideways market has not been caused by supporting positive factors. It is more inclined to be caused by short positions taking profits and returning again. The market's million-dollar positions are still dominated by short positions. Therefore, judging from the short-term trend, we still don't see a range of fluctuations on the market. Observe the performance of the range of 5250-5500.

Spot: The narrow consolidation of futures prices has reduced opportunities. When entering September, industrial chain participants are facing a downward trend, and they also have a bottom-hunting mood. They believe that the spot market still has expectations of gold and silver, but the recent sideways trend. Looking at the trend, in the spot market with high inventory, bottom-hunting may be difficult to form a better profit margin, but instead, the emergence of hedging orders will be considered due to poor digestion of supply. Moreover, judging from the overall commodity sentiment, most commodities have been operating weakly recently and have not shown the peak season phenomenon of the past. Therefore, the PVC spot market continues to perform poorly based on short fundamentals. In the short term, the PVC spot market may still be concentrated in a low and narrow range, and the market may turn into further bearish performance in the medium term after the National Day.