Methanol: Panic sentiment eased slightly, methanol market stopped falling and stabilized

On September 13, the methanol market price index was 2,079.09, an increase of 3.58 from yesterday and an increase of 0.17% month-on-month.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on September 12:

China's CFR 280-290 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton;

U.S. FOB 106-107 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon;

Southeast Asia CFR 344-345 US $/ton, flat;

European FOB 334-335 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.

Today's price summary:

Guanzhong: 2120-2160 (20), North Line:2010-2040 (0), South Line: 2050 (0), South Shandong:2330 (0), Henan:2245-2270 (10), Shanxi: 2150-2220 (20), Port:2395-2405 (40)

Freight:

North Line-Northern Shandong 190-240 (0/0), North Line-Southern Shandong 280-300 (0/0), South Line-Northern Shandong 210-250 (0/0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 150-190 (0/0)

spot market: Today, methanol market prices stopped falling and stabilized, futures rebounded at low levels, and the mentality of market operators has improved. However, downstream demand at the demand terminal is weak, methanol fundamentals are weak, and market prices lack momentum to rise. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been adjusted within a narrow range. The price of the southern line is around 2050 yuan/ton, which remains unchanged from yesterday. The price of the northern line is around 2010- 2,040 yuan/ton, which is stable at the low end. Some companies continue to make concessions to ship, and traders hold goods. The mentality is cautious and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have been adjusted within a narrow range, with 2330 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The low-end is stable, and the market has rebounded slightly. Traders are cautious in holding goods, and most of them need low-price replenishment. The market quotation in North China has been lowered accordingly. Today's price in Hebei is 2,240 - 2,270 yuan/ton, which is stable, and downstream operators have a general mood to stock up before the holiday; today's price in Shanxi is 2,150 - 2,220 yuan/ton. The futures market has fluctuated and strengthened. The market quotation has stabilized and rebounded, and the industry has a general mentality.

port market: Today, the futures range fluctuated. Spot demand is average, and a small amount of paper goods are shipped unilaterally on rallies, arbitrage and buying, and the basis is stable. The overall transaction was average. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: spot/9 middle: 2390-2405, basis of 01+10/+17; 9 transactions: 2405-2420, basis of 01+25/+28; 10 transactions: 2435-2440, basis of 01+45.

Market outlook forecast:Recently, methanol futures rebounded at a low level, and the mentality of market operators has improved. Although the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday was interspersed during the week, some traders and terminal downstream operators replenished stocks in stages, considering that inventories in China and the port markets are in a high position, the driving force for price push-up in the Chinese market is relatively limited. In the short term, there are still plans to restart equipment in the Chinese market next week, and market supply may be expected to increase. It is expected that the market price of methanol and methanol may maintain a range of fluctuations in the short term. However, in the later period, we still need to pay attention to coal prices, on-site equipment operation and downstream demand. Follow up situation.