Daily review of urea: The market continues to be weak and the willingness to buy is low (September 12)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiluoduo data, the urea small particle price index on September 12 was 1955.59, down 3.18% from yesterday, 0.16% lower than the previous month, and 24.62% lower than the same period last year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR501 contract is 1770, the highest price is 1804, the lowest price is 1757, the settlement price is 1779, and the closing price is 1779. Compared with the previous trading day, the closing price increased by 42% and 2.39% compared with the previous trading day. The whole-day fluctuation range is 1757-1804WT01 contract Shandong area base difference 71101contract today reduced 2370 positions, so far held 193602 positions.

Today, the price of urea futures rebounded greatly with the market environment. Recently, urea prices have bottomed out and rebounded due to the overall market macro sentiment and the linked rise in coking coal futures prices. Superimposed subsequent supply-side disturbances are expected to remain, and the spot market sentiment is improved to a certain extent after the futures price rebound, resulting in the reappearance of price volatility elasticity. However, the current demand problem has not been significantly improved, downstream low-price delivery but limited willingness to rebound, short-term in the demand can not undertake the premise of futures prices or pulse rebound, their own lack of drive before paying attention to the overall market sentiment changes.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea marketThe low price transaction situation is general, the market trading atmosphere is still weak, the market is difficult to boost, the enterprise quotation remains low, the current market lacks good news to boost the market, and the price continues to be weak..

Specifically, the price in Northeast China is stable at 1950-1970 yuan / ton. Prices in East China are stable at 1850-1900 yuan / ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in central China is stable at 1860-2080 yuan / ton, and the price of large particles is stable at 1910-2060 yuan / ton. Prices in North China are stable at 1790-1970 yuan / ton. The price in South China has been reduced to 2010-2050 yuan / ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1930-1980 yuan / ton. Prices in southwest China are stable at 1980-2300 yuan / ton.

Future forecast:

In terms of factories, the quotations of manufacturers continue to decline, the low prices of new orders are mostly followed up, the overall transaction situation is general, the situation of new orders is not smooth, the current shipping pressure, are facing the task of receiving orders one after another, and the new prices continue to decline. In terms of the market, the market is still weak, and some of the low-cost supply of goods in the market has improved, and the transaction has increased slightly, but the overall market follow-up situation is still general, there is still a lack of favorable support in the market, and the market is temporarily deadlocked and adjusted in a narrow range. On the supply side, with the recovery of the previous maintenance equipment, coupled with the continuous commissioning of new production capacity, the industry Nissan continues to improve, enterprise inventory also continues to accumulate, the supply side continues to be loose, the pressure is becoming more and more obvious. In terms of demand, industrial rigid demand weakens, downstream follow-up is suspended, and appropriate replenishment continues, while operators are relatively cautious in following up and maintaining small orders of rigid demand. Agriculture is also mostly reserve demand, which is affected by the mentality of buying up but not buying down. at present, the willingness to purchase is weak, and the support to the market is relatively limited.

Overall, the current market supply and demand fundamentals are weakly supported, the market trading sentiment is weak, the market narrow downward trend does not change, urea market prices are expected to continue to decline in a short period of time, the market is mainly weak.