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PVC Futures Analysis:September 11th V2501 contract opening price: 5332, highest price: 5395, lowest price: 5245, position: 980595, settlement price: 5320, yesterday settlement: 5360, down 40, daily trading volume: 1503536 lots, precipitated capital: 3.7 billion, capital outflow: 11000.
List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton
PVC spot market:The trend of mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market is slightly differentiated, with prices adjusted slightly in various regions. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20 yuan / ton in North China, stable in East China, 20-30 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 30 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises partially reduced 40-50 yuan / ton, including synchronous downward price of remote storage, some enterprises maintained a stable wait-and-see, but the downward price of factory has not been heard to produce more orders. Futures first fell and then rose, the spot market quoted price down slightly in the early hours, and some upward adjustments were carried out in the afternoon, but the feedback from the lower reaches was insipid, and the basis offer was slightly adjusted. Among them, the base difference offer 01 contract in East China-(100-150-200), South China 01 contract-(0-140), North 01 contract-(230-270-330), some low-price sources in Southwest China heard 01 contract-(510). Afternoon prices rose late in the afternoon, and there was no good feedback in the spot market. On the contrary, the enthusiasm of inquiry remained weak.
From the perspective of futures:The night futures price of PVC2501 contract fell significantly at the start of trading, with an intraday low of 5245, and then bottomed out. After the start of morning trading, the price was arranged in a narrow range, and the direction of intraday volatility was not clear, and the price was pulled up in late afternoon trading. 2501 contracts fluctuated in the range of 5245-5395 throughout the day, with a spread of 150,150,001 contracts with an increase of 38839 positions, with 980595 positions so far, 2505 contracts closing at 5638 and 139632 positions.
PVC Future Forecast:
In terms of futures:The low point of the PVC2501 contract price refreshed the low before the main link, and the lowest point of operation today was 5245, but then there was a certain reduction of more than 38800 positions on the rebound surface, and the short order took a profit. In terms of transactions, it is still mainly open, but the level of air is also increasing accordingly. At the close of midday, the main contracts of Chinese futures were up and down. The European line of container transportation rose by more than 12%, lithium carbonate by nearly 8%, and coke, apple, Shanghai silver and coking coal by more than 2%. In terms of decline, asphalt and styrene fell by more than 2% LPG, pulp, SC crude oil, live pigs, low-sulfur fuel oil, glass fell by more than 1%, and the cultural goods index also hit a new low today. In the short term as a whole, the PVC market may still be low and wide, with an observation range of 5250-5500.
Spot aspect:After the futures market refreshed its low in the night trading, the atmosphere in the two markets was depressed in the late morning trading, and the merchants' offers also showed a certain downward performance in the morning, but the afternoon price rose, and the spot market also followed the adjustment to recover the decline. the feedback from the lower reaches is insipid, no matter whether the price rises or falls, the inquiry enthusiasm is not good, and under the current time point, the expectation of Jinjiuyin ten has been strangled. The traditional peak season is now delayed under the trend of weak overall commodity performance. There is still no big new idea on the supply and demand side of PVC. The starting load of PVC plant is stable, but the calcium carbide market has been strong recently and prices have been rising all the way. It can be said that it is outstanding among the weak chlor-alkali products, but PVC has always performed poorly. The restriction of high inventory leads to the obvious empty distribution of the two cities, and the operational opportunities are reduced, the spot profits are also compressed, and the PVC spot market may continue to be low and narrow in the short term.
