PVC: Futures prices are low and sideways, small positions are increased, short openings are still dominant, and spot weakness is adjusted

PVC Futures Analysis:September 10th V2501 contract opening price: 5390, highest price: 5395, lowest price: 5324, position: 1019434, settlement price: 5360, yesterday settlement: 5359, up 1, daily trading volume: 1170064 lots, precipitated capital: 3.81 billion, capital outflow: 14.96 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market remain weak, and prices in various regions are adjusted flexibly by a small margin. Compared with the valuation, the high end of North China fell by 10 yuan / ton, East China stable, South China low-end down 20 yuan / ton, Northeast stable, Central China stable, Southwest stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises basically remain stable, and there is no obvious adjustment in factory prices today, and the first-generation contracts are mainly based on basic quantity. Futures continue to be low and narrow in late trading, and the spot market quotation is adjusted slightly according to the transaction status, but there is some room for actual transaction. There are certain differences in individual areas, including East China basis offer 01 contract-(100-150-200), South China 01 contract-(0-150), North 01 contract-(230-280-350), and some low-priced sources in Southwest China heard 01 contract-(510). On the whole, it is still difficult to close a deal at a high price in the spot market, the negotiation of the actual order is the main, the purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches is not high, and the spot transaction is weak.

From the perspective of futures:The night price of PVC2501 contract fell at the beginning of trading, and the market weakened obviously, but then Bank V rebounded and returned to the opening price. After the start of morning trading, the futures price weakened after the high, and the afternoon price closed low. 2501 contracts fluctuated in the range of 5324-5395 throughout the day, with a spread of 71. 01. The contract increased its position by 15102 lots, with 1019434 positions so far, 2505 contracts closing at 5564 and 142734 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures:The PVC2501 contract price is adjusted in a narrow range and the fluctuation range is arranged in a small range. In terms of transaction, it is 25.3% more flat than 22.4% more flat, 25.6% empty and 22.5% more open, which is more inclined to empty single-cycle games. The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is downward, and the MACD line at the daily level continues to show a dead-fork trend. at present, the trend of futures disk price comes from less traction from fundamentals and policy aspects, but the total volume of disk turnover is more than 1 million, and the activity of the main PVC contract is still there, but the trend does not show a greater direction at present. We still maintain the previous point of view and continue to observe the performance of the low range of 5300-5450.

Spot aspect:Although the futures market in the two cities yesterday appeared a small upward repair market, but today part of the vomiting, the spot market also appeared a certain yield behavior, PVC term linkage is strong, the PVC spot market more reference disk trend pricing. From a fundamental point of view, the start-up load of the PVC plant is stable, the cost port calcium carbide price continues to rise, and the cost of the calcium carbide method shows a certain support performance, but at present, the price is restricted by the weak market, and the support of the cost rise in the two cities is weakened, the production pressure of the calcium carbide PVC production is increased, the ethylene process is currently in operation, and the downward cost pressure of the VCM monomer price is alleviated. International oil prices rose in the outer disk, with US WTI crude oil futures rising from a 15-month low hit last week on fears that the hurricane expected to hit Louisiana on Wednesday would damage energy production along the Gulf Coast. On the whole, in the short term, the PVC spot market will continue to be low-level consolidation.