Daily Review of Urea: No market support, no market support, continued weakness, and downward test (September 9)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on September 9 was 2005.27, a decrease of 10.45 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.76%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR501 contract is 1799, the highest price is 1806, the lowest price is 1771, the settlement price is 1785, and the closing price is 1783. The closing price is 35 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.93% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 1771-1806; the basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is 117; the 01 contract has increased its position by 8374 lots today, and so far, it has held 195623 lots.

Today, urea futures prices opened lower and fluctuated due to the overall sharp weakening of the commodity market at night last Friday, falling below the 1800 yuan mark. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for urea itself continues, and downstream purchasing sentiment and price decline have formed continuous negative feedback. In the short term, the urea market temporarily lacks its own improvement drive, and will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term or as the overall market environment changes.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continued to decline in a narrow range. There was a shortage of new orders in the market, and some low-end transactions were still acceptable. The market improved slightly, and the downside space for corporate quotations narrowed.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have been lowered to 2020-2050 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have been lowered to 1,890 - 1,940 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has been lowered to 1,910 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has been lowered to 2,000 - 2,100 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have been lowered to 1,830 - 2,050 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have been lowered to 2,050 - 2,110 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China have been lowered to 1970-2020 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China have been lowered to 2,000 - 2,300 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers are facing greater sales pressure and continue to cut prices to promote order acquisitions. After the price cuts, the order acquisitions of enterprises in some mainstream regions have improved. A small number of new orders have been followed up, and companies have limited short-term price adjustments. In terms of the market, the market continues to be weak, but the current decline has slowed down slightly, and the overall atmosphere is still weak. With the continuous shipment of orders and the lack of obvious good news in the market, the urea market may continue to be in a downward trend in the short term. On the supply side, the industry's maintenance equipment has been resumed one after another, and Nissan has shown an upward trend. There is no favorable guidance on the supply side. On the demand side, downstream operators still lack confidence in follow-up, and replenishment follow-up is mainly cautious. In addition, the factory's replenishment needs are slow and the actual purchase and sales are small, resulting in a continuous upward trend in urea inventories.

Overall, currentlyurea marketThere is no obvious favorable guidance, demand support is poor, supply is gradually easing, operators are waiting and waiting, procurement is slow, and urea market prices are expected to continue to be deadlocked in a short period of time.