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PVC Futures Analysis:September 9th V2501 contract opening price: 5360, highest price: 5416, lowest price: 5317, position: 1004332, settlement price: 5359, yesterday settlement: 5341, up 18, daily trading volume: 1294814 lots, precipitated capital: 3.795 billion, capital outflow: 49.26 million.
List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton
PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction price of China's PVC market rose slightly at the beginning of the week, and the spot market has been repaired. Compared with the valuation, North China increased by 30 yuan / ton, East China by 30 yuan / ton, South China by 30 yuan / ton, Northeast region by 50 yuan / ton, Central China by 30 yuan / ton, and southwest region by 50 yuan / ton. The factory prices of the upstream PVC production enterprises mostly remained stable, and the prices of individual ethylene methods were slightly reduced by 50 yuan / ton to promote transactions, but there were few contracts signed in the first generation of the week. The narrow adjustment of futures price rose in late afternoon, and the price offer in the spot market rose slightly compared with last Friday, especially in the afternoon, but there are still negotiations on the spot. During the period of low price arrangement, the advantage of point price is relatively obvious. Among them, the base difference offer 01 contract in East China-(80-150-210), South China 01 contract-(50-80), North 01 contract-(230-300-350) Some low-cost sources in southwest China have heard of 01 contract-(510). Although the two quotation methods co-exist, but at the beginning of the week in the spot yard did not hear of a better transaction, multi-rigid demand procurement-based, inquiry enthusiasm to maintain the early stage.
From the perspective of futures:The night price of PVC2501 contract is mainly in a narrow range as a whole, and the fluctuation range of the futures price is narrowed. Prices rose slightly after the start of early trading on Monday, but by less than enough, then continued to fluctuate, closing at intraday highs in late afternoon trading. 2501 contracts fluctuated in the range of 5317-5416 throughout the day, with a spread of 999.01 contracts reducing positions by 20632 lots, with positions so far of 1004332 lots, 2505 contracts closing at 5605, and positions of 142799 hands.
PVC Future Forecast:
In terms of futures:The PVC2501 contract price closed higher at the end of the day, and showed a certain position reduction at the beginning of the week. in terms of transaction, the short price was 26.3% higher than 24.0% higher, and the open price was 23.9% higher than the opening price of 22.0%. The late price rise was more likely to be triggered by short price. After the lowest point of 5282 on Friday, some short orders made a profit to wait and see. The technical level shows that the three-track openings of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) all turn downward, but the KD lines at the daily level cross, the distance between the MACD lines is shortened, and the price shows a positive pillar with a longer shadow line. Short-term operation of futures prices, we think or still lack of a certain performance, continue to observe the performance of the low range of 5330-5500.
Spot aspect:At the beginning of the week, although the two cities fluctuated slightly, especially the futures closed higher at the end of the day, driven by the formation of the spot market, the quotations in the spot market were raised slightly one after another, but the actual rigid demand was not good. PVC fundamentals, calcium carbide prices rose slightly 50 yuan / ton, blue carbon prices also increased at the beginning of the week, VCM monomer Taixing Xinpu downgraded 100 today factory 4900-5000 acceptance week pricing, supply and demand level there is no obvious variable factor guidance. In the outer disk, international oil prices closed lower as the weaker-than-expected US jobs data in August offset oil prices supported by oil exporters and their allies (OPEC+) by delaying production plans. Us government data showed that non-farm payrolls grew less than expected in August, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.20 per cent, indicating an orderly slowdown in the labour market, which may not be a reason for the Fed to cut interest rates sharply this month. On the whole, it comes from the fundamentals of PVC, the policy news and the guiding factors of the outer disk are not clear, and the spot PVC will continue to be low and narrow in the short term.
