Methanol: Futures market continues to be weak and the spot market fluctuates

On September 3rd, the market price index of methanol was 2173.56, which was 26.95 lower than that of yesterday and 1.24% lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 2:

China CFR 292-294 USD / ton, Ping

The United States is closed

CFR in Southeast Asia: us $346-347 per ton, Ping

European FOB 344-345 euros / ton, down 5 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2230 (0), North: 2070-2100 (- 30), South: 2110 (0), Lunan: 2380 (0), Henan: 2300-2325 (- 10), Shanxi: 2230-2290 (0), Port: 24402480 (- 15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 245-280 (0amp Mueller 10), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 310-335 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-260 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-240 (0max 0)

Spot marketToday, the price of methanol market is adjusted in a narrow range, and the futures market continues to weaken, forming a certain negative sentiment to the market operators, and the recovery of demand in the traditional downstream market is relatively slow, and some operators hold certain resistance to the current high prices. however, considering that the inventory pressure of some manufacturers is not great at present, the willingness of manufacturers to lower their quotations is not strong. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is running at a high level, with the quotation on the southern route around 2110 yuan / ton, the northern line around 2070-2100 yuan / ton, and the low end reduced by 30 yuan / ton. at present, the overall inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, and the industry has a certain price attitude, but some downstream to enter the market to receive goods is more cautious, the market transaction atmosphere is slightly general. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2390-2420 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The futures market continues to run weakly, the market transaction atmosphere is more cautious, and some downstream rigid demand replenishment is the main. The market quotation in North China is in operation. Hebei quotation is 2320-2350 yuan / ton today, the futures market is weak and volatile, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream users is low, and the market new order negotiation is cautious; Shanxi quotation today is 2230-2290 yuan / ton. some of the devices in the field are parked and overhauled, and the market supply in the region has been reduced, but the terminal demand is still weak and the market transaction atmosphere is limited.

Port marketToday, methanol futures consolidated after falling. Arbitrage shipments in recent months, unilateral low inquiry, the basis is slightly stronger; long-term arbitrage and exchange negotiations, the basis to maintain stability. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2440, base difference 01-23 Maxima: 2450-2455, base difference 01-20 Universe 17 position 9: 2450, base difference 01-18 × 9: 2455-2470, base difference 01-10 Melody 7: 10 transaction: 2480-2490, base difference 01-20: 20.

Future forecast:With the smooth delivery of goods in the early stage, the overall inventory pressure of some manufacturers in the region is not great, coupled with the good demand performance of the main downstream, which is favorable to the market, but considering that the demand recovery of the downstream market is relatively slow at present, and the futures price of the main contract of methanol continues to decline, the enthusiasm of some operators in the market to enter the market and replenish the stock is limited, and some hold a wait-and-see mood in the future. At present, the operators are more cautious in entering the market for replenishment. Under the rigid demand transaction, it is expected that the short-term regional trend of methanol price is mainly, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.