[Soda ash]9.3 Soda ash Daily Review: Soda ash market prices are weak and downward

Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the price of soda ash in China continues its downward trend. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is between 1,750 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,850 - 2,000 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is between 1,250 - 1,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,300 - 1,400 yuan/ton. Today, Qinghai Wucai and Hubei Shuanghuan units have been suspended for maintenance, and the supply has been reduced; while downstream demand continues to be sluggish, soda ash companies are facing greater shipping pressure, and the prices of some new orders are still declining, making it difficult to reverse the weak situation in the soda ash market.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on September 3, was 1503 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1499 yuan/ton, an increase of-2.85% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1513 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1479 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1241770 lots, a month-on-month period of-12328 lots.

Soda ash futures prices continued to decline today, but the decline slowed down relatively. Soda ash's own fundamentals continue to be weak. Yesterday, under the influence of news that negative feedback on the demand side intensified, its valuation was under pressure and went downward. However, given that the total scale of demand has not yet completely collapsed, the smoothness of continuing downward after the valuation and pricing move downward is relatively limited. Coupled with the news that some production lines of a large factory will suspend production in the near future, it has caused a certain disturbance to prices. Although the supply-demand relationship has not been significantly affected for the time being, it is necessary to prevent such behaviors from continuing to ferment in the industry after leading enterprises take the lead. problem. Overall, the short-term soda ash market still has the main logic of strong supply and weak demand as the core trading point. Before there are no signs of breaking this logic and macro sentiment does not stabilize again, soda ash prices may still operate in a weak position.

market outlook

Subsequent restoration and maintenance of soda plant units will be alternated, and supply will be adjusted; downstream market demand is weak, coupled with the continued decline in soda ash prices, market pessimism is strong, and it is expected that the soda ash market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.