Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the price of soda ash in China continues its downward trend. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is between 1,550 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,600 - 1,900 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in North China is between 1,700 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,800 - 1,900 yuan/ton. Today, Shandong Haitian equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the start of construction showed a narrow decline. Although it entered the traditional peak season of the "Golden Ninth", due to sluggish downstream demand and the continuous rise in manufacturers 'inventories, soda ash prices continued to bottom out, and market performance remained relatively weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on September 2, was 1590 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1503 yuan/ton, an increase of-5.89% within the day. The intraday high was 1593 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1498 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1254098 lots, a month-on-month +134361 lots.
Soda ash prices fell sharply today.Over the weekend, the National Statistics Bureau announced that the August manufacturing PMI was significantly lower than expected and fell to a low of 49.1 for the year. The overall commodity market sentiment was greatly frustrated. The macro sentiment driven by last week's news is difficult to sustain. After entering September, the market will gradually confirm whether demand in the peak season can improve, and the commodity market will temporarily return to fundamental logic. As the fundamental weakness of soda ash itself continues, the market once again reported that several leading photovoltaic glass companies will jointly reduce production over the weekend in response to difficulties. As a result, the negative feedback on demand for soda ash will further intensify, and the market will simultaneously significantly suppress the valuation of soda ash. In the short term, the macro sentiment driven by the news during the policy window is difficult to sustain, the market logic temporarily returns to its own fundamentals, and soda ash prices may remain weak, but it is still impossible to rule out the overall emotional replenishment driven by policy news and other factors in the future. market.
market outlook
Subsequent restoration and maintenance of soda plant units will be carried out alternately, and supply will be adjusted; downstream demand is still mainly in need of replenishment, and the market lacks upward momentum. It is expected that the soda ash market will maintain a narrow consolidation trend in the short term.
