Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market is stable and moving slightly. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Central China is between 1,500 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,700 - 1,900 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is between 1,750 - 1,900 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,900 - 2,000 yuan/ton; there has been no equipment maintenance recently, and the supply of goods is still loose; Driven by the lack of positive benefits downstream, the replenishment efforts are weak, and the overall trading atmosphere is slightly deserted; the soda ash market still has accumulated pressure, and the market performance is still weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on August 30, was 1599 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1596 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% within the day. The intraday high was 1622 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1575 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1119737 lots, a month-on-month +40702 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices were generally strong and volatile. During the intraday session, affected by market policy news, there was an emotional surge and fall back. Although there has been no obvious effective improvement in its own fundamentals, some downstream deposit and replenishment behaviors during the month change, and the futures market also stopped falling and fluctuated due to expectations of improved demand during the peak season and macro policy expectations. It is necessary to observe whether the temporary stabilization of market sentiment will lead to an improvement in downstream purchasing sentiment. Overall, soda ash currently does not support a strong rising market, but stories that can be told in the short term will have a greater impact on expected changes, and market emotional transactions are inevitable. For the time being, we maintain the view that it is not advisable to be excessively bearish and wait for the end of the consolidation. New drivers.
market outlook
Subsequent alkali plant equipment recovery and maintenance will be alternated, and supply will be adjusted; downstream demand will recover slowly, waiting for market expectations to be fulfilled during the peak season, and it is expected that the soda ash market will be narrowed in the short term.
