PVC: The futures price has increased significantly in the downward V trend, the rise and fall are willful, and the spot price has been adjusted weakly.

PVC Futures Analysis:V2501 contract opening price: 5632, highest price: 5656, lowest price: 5572, position: 968910, settlement price: 5604, yesterday settlement: 5621, down 17, daily trading volume: 1217407 lots, precipitated capital: 3.789 billion, capital inflow: 310 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction price in China's PVC market remained weak, and the price fell slightly. Compared with the valuation, the high-end fell by 10 yuan / ton in North China, 10-20 yuan / ton in East China, 10 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China and 20 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices slightly reduced 20-30 yuan / ton, even if there is no reduction in ex-factory prices, large orders also appear 20-30 profit margin. During the week, the market was mainly adjusted by a small margin, and futures first rose and then fell, especially in the afternoon. The spot market had both price quotation and basis difference, including 01 contract in East China-(150-200-250-280), 01 contract in South China-(0-50-90), 01 contract in North China-(350-420), and 01 contract-(600) in some low-price sources in Southwest China. On the whole, it coincides with Friday, the spot market part of the actual order small negotiations, low basis offer has a slight price advantage, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, the transaction is mediocre.

From the perspective of futures:The night price of PVC2501 contract opened slightly lower, and the futures price weakened slightly. After the start of morning trading, the futures price further fluctuated and fell, and the afternoon opening price rose significantly, but there was an inverted V trend, and there was an obvious downward trend after the high. 2501 contracts fluctuated in the range of 5572-5656 throughout the day, with a spread of 84. 01 contracts with an increase of 84752 positions, with 968910 positions so far, 2409 contracts closing at 5389 and 52689 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures:The operation of the PVC2501 contract price showed an obvious inverted V trend in the afternoon. After a sudden rise, the futures price faced a downward adjustment, and the market substantially increased the position by more than 84700 hands. In terms of transaction, the opening was 25.4% higher than the short opening of 27.3%, and the short opening was still mostly. The technical level shows that the opening trend of the three-track opening of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2), the KD line at the daily level crosses, and the MACD line continues to show a golden fork trend. Coinciding with the large increase in positions on Friday, the trend of the futures price still shows the trend of the middle track, and we can also see that the overall trend is relatively anxious. As a whole, the operation of the futures price in the short term may still be difficult to get rid of the shock trend, and the volatility range of the futures price continues to observe the performance of 5550-5750.

Spot aspect:The spot market has always been spent in a narrow adjustment during the week, and transactions have been maintained in a light state. Upstream PVC production enterprises mainly sign orders in basic volume, with less volume transactions, and some enterprises make a large order profit of 20-30 yuan / ton on Friday, in order to promote transaction digestion of factory inventory. There are still no new ideas on the demand side, mainly to maintain rigid demand, coupled with the current supply state tends to be stable, high inventory constraints under the supply-demand game between the two cities, the current price fluctuations in the two cities have always maintained a small fluctuation. However, after the main force has completed the change, the total turnover of the futures market has increased, and the activity of 2501 has increased. On the outer disk, oil prices rose more than 1 per cent as Libyan supplies fell and Iraq planned to reduce production, raising supply concerns. Fixed income and liquidity solutions macro strategists said in a report that Goldman Sachs Asset Management expected the Fed to cut interest rates three times in September, November and December, each by 25 basis points. On the whole, in the short term, PVC spot market prices are still mainly adjusted in a narrow range.