Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the price of individual soda ash in China has been reduced within a narrow range. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is between 1,300 - 1,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,300 - 1,400 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is between 1,550 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,750 - 1,900 yuan/ton; today, the soda ash market is operating relatively stable, and individual devices are gradually operating under increased load; Although it has entered the early stage of stocking during the "Golden Ninth" peak season, downstream demand is still insufficient. The market is mainly low prices and needs to replenish the warehouse. The market is still in a strong wait-and-see mood; at present, the soda ash market lacks strong support, and the overall operation is still weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on August 28, was 1618 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1568 yuan/ton, an increase of-1.51% within the day. The intraday high was 1630 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1558 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1101464 lots, a month-on-month +113298 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices surged high and fell back, basically giving up yesterday's gains. The fundamental weakness of soda ash itself has not improved significantly, and the logic of the general direction downwards remains unbreakable. From an industrial perspective, the weakness of the soda ash market is temporarily unsolved. However, from a macro perspective, there are currently certain repair expectations in the commodity market under low valuations, such as expectations of month-on-month improvement in demand during the peak season, improvement in sentiment driven by macro recovery, and realistic improvement expectations. Affected by this, the recent decline in soda ash prices has slowed down relatively, and the game between the long and short sides has intensified. In the short term, we can temporarily wait and see whether soda ash futures prices will continue to break below new lows and continue the decline or temporarily stop falling and turn into shocks.
market outlook
The subsequent restoration and maintenance of soda plant units will be alternated, and the supply will be adjusted; the peak consumption season of Jinjiu is approaching, and the market needs to pay close attention to the recovery of downstream demand. It is expected that the soda ash market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.
