Daily Review of Urea: New orders in the market are slowing down, the market is weak and narrow (August 27)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 27 was 2,099.36, a decrease of 5.27 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.25% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.19%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR501 contract is 1887, the highest price is 1895, the lowest price is 1875, the settlement price is 1882, and the closing price is 1884. The closing price is 14 more than the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.75% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 1875-1895; the basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is 146; the 01 contract has increased its position by 3730 lots today, and the position is 155412 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, trading in new orders in China's urea market is still flat. After a round of replenishment, downstream companies are less willing to continue to buy, and the market continues to be weak.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have been lowered to 2,080 - 2,110 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have been lowered to 2010-2080 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has been lowered to 2020-2250 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has been lowered to 2110-2180 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have been lowered to 1,900 - 2,100 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have been lowered to 2,140 - 2,230 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China have been lowered to 2,080 - 2,130 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,050 - 2,450 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, the current manufacturers 'offers are temporarily firm based on the support of pending orders, and prices in some external markets have slightly loosened and lowered. Without any positive support, the company's mentality is temporarily firm and stable. In terms of the market, the transaction situation of new orders has weakened significantly. The trading atmosphere of operators is cautious, follow-up is slowing down. The market is short of buying sentiment and has limited support for the market. The current market lacks substantial positive support, and the market is difficult to move upwards. The emotion may push the market. The increase in transactions at low prices has increased, and the market is still dominated by shocks. In terms of supply, urea maintenance units have been restored one after another, industry supply has gradually increased, and daily production has increased at a high level. The supply side has weak support for market conditions in the short term. On the demand side, the demand side has not changed much, and the status quo has been maintained. A small amount of follow-up is mainly needed. Downstream factories have not yet followed up on a large scale to replenish goods, and their mentality continues to wait and see.

On the whole, the current supply and demand side of the urea market continues to be loose, companies are ready to support, quotations are firm and minor, downstream follow-up is slowing down, and the market is maintained at random. It is expected that the urea market price will stabilize and decrease in a short period of time.