Caustic soda: Spot prices of low-concentration alkali maintained a slight increase, and futures prices plunged significantly at the end of the session, taking back the intraday increase

Analysis of caustic soda futures:SH2409 contract opening price: 2416, highest price: 2474, lowest price: 2389, position: 17611, settlement price: 2443, yesterday settlement: 2460, down: 17, closing price: 2390, daily trading volume: 63785 lots, precipitated capital: 202 million, capital outflow: 13.76 million.

Market price of caustic soda:

Spot analysis of caustic soda:Today, the trend of China's caustic soda market is still slightly different, the price of low concentration caustic soda continues to rise slightly, the price of high concentration caustic soda falls in individual areas, and the tablet alkali market is weak and stable. The market wait-and-see mood is heavy, the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is not high, near the weekend, the price is mainly flexible adjustment. Today, the prices of the liquid alkali market are mixed, some areas are adjusted up and down, and the markets in most areas are stable. From the point of view of the price adjustment in various regions, 32% of the ionic membrane alkali rose 10-30 yuan / ton, 50% of the ionic membrane alkali fell 20 yuan / ton, and 49% of the ionic membrane alkali rose 10 yuan / ton individually. The prices of other concentrations of alkali almost remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. There are maintenance plans for individual regional installations in eastern China, coupled with the improvement in downstream delivery, which has a certain positive boost to local prices, with the center of gravity of transaction prices rising in the surrounding individual regional markets; the inventory pressure of enterprises in the main producing areas is not great, and prices continue to rise slightly. The operation of the market in most other regions is stable, the price range has not changed significantly for the time being, demand still does not see a substantial improvement, and most downstream maintain the pace of rigid demand procurement. Most of the upstream production enterprises wait and see to stabilize the price, and a few manufacturers adjust their quotations. Today, the trend of the tablet alkali market remains stable, after the factory quotation is lowered, the market performance is cautious, the wait-and-see mood is not reduced, and the market trading atmosphere has not been significantly improved. Most of the sheet caustic soda units operate stably, a few are still under maintenance, the supply side is relatively stable, the downstream demand maintains a lukewarm procurement rhythm, enterprises are more flexible to ship goods, and the market transaction price has not changed significantly.

Caustic soda futures analysis:Caustic soda SH2409 contract opened low and high, night prices rose, after the opening of the morning shock operation, followed by a small rise, late shock, late afternoon prices plunged sharply. As of today's close, SH2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2389-2474 throughout the day, with a price difference of 85 minus 09 contracts with a reduction of 1036 positions and 17611 positions so far.

Caustic soda index analysis:According to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index fell 0.142% to 2731.92, down 3.88%, while China's caustic soda index fell.

Future forecast of caustic soda:

Spot aspect:From the supply side, at present, the production of most caustic soda units is stable, a few units have maintenance plans, some areas are dissatisfied with the start of the plant, and recently, the inventory pressure of some enterprises in North and East China is not great, which is good support for the local market. From the point of view of downstream demand, the current time node is in late August, Jinjiu is about to start, and downstream demand in some areas has slightly improved, but the overall demand still maintains the pace of rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is mediocre. Substantive demand still has not improved significantly, and we still need to pay attention to the recovery of demand in the later stage. It is expected that the short-term caustic soda market may continue to adjust its operation.

In terms of futures:Caustic soda main contract SH2409 contract most of the time futures prices in the middle of the track near the small fluctuations in the afternoon there is an obvious diving market, the pressure above the plate is greater. In terms of trading volume, 16.2% more than 18.4% empty, 19.5% flat and 16.8% more flat. The technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three rails diverge, the opening of the middle and lower rails is downward, the KD line at the daily level shows a dead fork trend and has expanded, and the MACD line shows a golden fork trend but significantly narrowed, although today's futures price has a small upward trend, but late in the afternoon a sharp dive, giving up intraday gains, and the low price fell below the 2400 mark, refreshing the weekly low of 2389. At present, from the perspective of the market, the futures price is suppressed by short sellers, and the upward pressure on the futures price is greater, and there is no obvious support at the bottom, so the short-term concern is about the performance between the middle and lower tracks.

Caustic soda holds the list: