Methanol: The current range of methanol period is adjusted and the market has limited driving force

On August 20, the methanol market price index was 2110.03, up 1.15 per cent from yesterday and 0.05 per cent higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 19:

China CFR 287-291 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 100-101cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia: us $345-346 per ton, Ping

European FOB 337-338 euros / ton, up 2 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2190 (30), North: 2010-2040 (0), South: 2050 (0), Lunan: 2340-2350 (0), Henan: 2290-2315 (0), Shanxi: 2160-2270 (10), Port: 24202440 (5)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 240-290 (- 10 amp 10), North Line-South Shandong 320-340 (0 amp 0), South Line-North Shandong 250-280 (0 amp Mui 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-240 (- 10 amp 0)

Spot marketToday, the methanol market price is arranged in a narrow range, the futures market is highly volatile, and the port spot market price is adjusted with the market. Today, the bidding situation in Shanxi is good and there are many premium deals, but the overall demand downstream is still weak, and the driving force of the market is weak. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are operating steadily, with the quotation for the southern route around 2050 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2010-2040 yuan / ton, with a stable low end, and some downstream and traders may have a small amount of bottom-reading psychology, and the market transaction atmosphere is OK. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2340-2350 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2330-2350 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The main futures market is strongly rising, driving the market trading atmosphere to warm up. Downstream and traders actively take goods, and the market trading atmosphere is OK. The market quotation in North China is running stably for the time being. Hebei quoted price 2250-2310 yuan / ton today, maintaining yesterday, the start of the traditional downstream is not high, and the demand-side follow-up is slightly weak. Shanxi quoted 2150-2240 yuan / ton today, maintaining yesterday, methanol futures market trend is strong, operators buy up do not buy down sentiment highlighted, the market trading atmosphere is OK, the supply of goods available for sale on the market has been reduced, to a certain extent, driving some enterprises to bid prices higher.

Port marketToday, methanol futures were consolidated and closed higher in late trading. Spot rigid demand negotiation, the basis is strong. Forward morning bargain enquiries are active, arbitrage shipments are the main; in the afternoon, as futures rise, high shipments increase, 09 contract spreads strengthen, 01 spreads weaken, August / September spreads widen. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2420-2440, base difference 09: 5Universe 10: 10 transaction: 2435-2465, base difference: 09: 22 pound: 25: 01-20 picnic: 2460-2490, basis: 09: 2490, base difference: 09: 2480: 2510, basis difference: 01: 32: 35.

Future forecast:Recently, the start-up of the downstream olefin industry has increased compared with the previous period, the market demand in some areas has improved, coupled with the strong volatility of the futures market, the mentality of the operators in the market has been supported, and the trading atmosphere in the Chinese market has improved compared with the previous period. And under the influence of the expectation of "Jinjiu", most of the operators in the market often replenish goods at low prices, but considering that the recovery of the overall demand side is relatively slow at present, the driving force of market quotation is relatively limited. Overall, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price will fluctuate in a narrow range, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.